Quote:
Originally Posted by russellw
Elimination is unlikely unless we are fortunate enough that it follows the original SARS pattern and goes away on its own. The more likely scenario is that relatively isolated countries like Australia and UnZud manage to reach a 28 day zero new case state at which point there are some tough decisions to be made at the Government level as to how we approach the new world order which is where my earlier crystal-balling came into play.
I'm frankly against easing restrictions until we reach the 28-day zero case status mentioned above. If a particular State reaches that earlier than others then maybe that could be used as a test case but you'd still have to restrict cross border travel to ensure that you don't cross-contaminate.
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You realise you are betting a depression on eradication, something you admit is unlikely.
A depression is going to have an even greater impact on mortality rates but wont be seen till until 50-90 years down the track.