Thread: Covid 19 -
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Old 01-07-2020, 06:40 PM   #3775
AlanD
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Join Date: Apr 2009
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Default Re: Covid 19 -

Hi,

Lies, Damn lies and statistics!!

Anders Tegnell is probably a good epidemiologist, but if he is resoponsible for that bar chart above then his statistical knowledge could do with some work.

Based on some rough and ready calculations the following:

China 2.6 deaths per million of population.
Malaysia 3.8 deaths per million of population
Australia 4.2 deaths per million of population
New Zealand 5.5 deaths per million of population
Singapore 6.5 deaths per million of population
Indonesia 14.4 deaths per million of population
Germany 112 deaths per million of population
Canada 227 deaths per million of population.

SFAIK all these countries had some form of lockdown and if you construct a bar chart such as is shown in Cav's post then you might conclude that NOT locking down is the worst thing you can do.

The message is- be very careful about how you interpret raw data - and in the case of Covid 19 there are a multitude of factors that affect the deaths per million of population - but on balance I will prefer lockdown in the face of a "sneaky" adversary that multiplies by means of transmission person to person by proximity to them for periods measured in tens of minutes, especially in poorly ventilated areas.

Cheers
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