Covid 19 -

[PooDog]

Originally Posted by Yellow_Festiva

Those 16+ I believe.

If we take everyone into consideration the number drops to low 50's.

Now that they are promoting vaccinations to those 12+ will that change the goal posts again I wonder? Hope not.

The numbers are always calculated from over twelves which i thought was the youngest age the vaccine was approved for with Pfizer over the ditch here
Is it different for the AZ?

Or are the pollies over there trying to give the percentage rates a head start

[russellw]

Originally Posted by PooDog

The numbers are always calculated from over twelves which i thought was the youngest age the vaccine was approved for with Pfizer over the ditch here Is it different for the AZ?

Or are the pollies over there trying to give the percentage rates a head start

12+ is the approved range but as I posted the other day, the official counts are all based on the 16+ age group.

So (as of yesterday), the National official figure (16+) is 45.4% double dosed but that falls to 42.8% of 12+ and only 36.4% of the total population.

[PooDog]

Originally Posted by russellw

12+ is the approved range but as I posted the other day, the official counts are all based on the 16+ age group.

So (as of yesterday), the National official figure (16+) is 45.4% double dosed but that falls to 42.8% of 12+ and only 36.4% of the total population.

I guess that gives them the flexibility to use what ever figures suits the outcome they're pursuing?

[russellw]

Originally Posted by PooDog

I guess that gives them the flexibility to use what ever figures suits the outcome they're pursuing?

I think the term you are looking for is it allows them to lie basically.
We've followed the UK example of only counting people 16+ and we can see just how well that model has worked for them.

The jury is still out on exactly what the total population or even 12+ population percentage is that would be sufficient to slow down the pandemic but (for example) Measles required about 94% vax rates and Polio needed 80% to achieve herd immunity while Influenza only needs 40%.

The Grattan Institute model estimated 80% double dosed as the required level but it made some important assumptions that:

(1) aren't correct, like children over the age of two are able to be vaccinated; or
(2) are questionable, like the assumption that children under 16 are about one-fifth less likely to get COVID.

Best case scenario:
- let's say that the 2nd assumption is correct and
- let's say that the unvaccinated 2-12 year age group, themselves ~12% of the population, won't really impact the outcomes in terms of spreading the virus and
- we fully vaccinate 70% of the 12+ population which is equal to 73% of 16+ or 59.2% of total population and
- the effective REFF value is only 3 (it is currently about 6) once that vax target is reached then:

... we might just get away with hospitalisation, ICU and mortality rates that aren't too bad but if any one of those assumptions prove wrong then it is not a good look.

[hayseed]

Originally Posted by PooDog

Or are the pollies over there trying to give the percentage rates a head start

Perish the Thought..........