Covid 19 -

[Citroënbender]

Originally Posted by LG17

Apparently the 20 year old who died "from the virus" had stage 4 terminal cancer.

“They say someone caught AIDS from a teacup” - who else remembers those adverts?

Dry facts may be less exciting but don’t undermine credibility when shown up.

[russellw]

Time for a fresh look at the USA where there have been some significant changes in terms of the worst performing States.

For raw case numbers, California (+1) takes over the top spot ahead of Florida (+1) and Texas (+1) while New York (-3) drops to 4th and Georgia (+2) climbs to 5th. The rest of the worst 10 are Illinois (-), Arizona (+1), New Jersey (-3), North Carolina (+2) and Louisiana (+2). Remember that pluses are not a good thing as it moves you higher up the ladder.

Three of those (Florida, Alabama and Texas) along with S Carolina, Arkansas, Utah & W Virginia were the only states to have worsened CMRs - possibly as ICU capacity gets stretched.

Speaking of CMR, the national average stands at 3.11% with Connecticut (8.75) the worst followed by New Jersey (8.28), New York (7.22), Massachusetts (7.15) and Michigan (6.45) with 13 other states above the national average. On the plus side, 43 states are below 1% CMR with Alaska (0.66) leading the way.

The national average for cases per 100k of population is 1681.75 with Louisiana (2969) the worst followed by Arizona (2622), Florida (2607), Mississippi (2413) and New York (2343). At the other end of the scale are Vermont (241), Maine (309), W Virginia (481), Oregon (540) and Kentucky (873).

The national average for deaths per 100k is 52.3 with New jersey (178) the worst followed by New York (169), Massachusetts (126), Connecticut (124) and Rhode Island (96). The best of the mainland states are Wyoming (5.23), Idaho (6.84), Montana (7.55), W Virginia (9.0) and Oregon (9.02).

Florida (10.3% of cases and 6.6% of the population), Texas (10.06/8.9) and New York (8.2/5.9) along with several other states to a lesser extent are over-represented in terms of case number compared to population.

Surprisingly, despite being the retirement home of America, Florida is not over-represented in terms of deaths per 100k of population but New York is with 19% of the deaths and only 5.9% of the population as are Illinois (9.2/2.7), Massachusetts (5.1/2.1), Connecticut (2.6/1.08) and Louisiana (2.6/1.4).

Looking at the various trend graphs, some states are getting (or starting to get) a good handle on it.

New York had been on a steep downward trend since peaking at almost 11k cases on April 26th but that has flattened off since early June to now sit between 6-900 cases per day. Still too many but way better than it was.

New Jersey was seeing ~4k cases a day in April but that's been in the 3-500 bracket since early July.

Some aren't.

California only reached a peak a few days ago and is still recording more than 10k cases per day. Ohio has been getting steadily worse since early June. Virginia and Maryland only peaked 10 days ago in what looks to be a second wave. Missouri has done the same but it's still the first wave. Most States are showing a similar shaped curve with an early peak, slight drop and then a steady climb which explains why the country as a whole has just continued to climb in case numbers as we saw yesterday.

[russellw]

272 new cases for Australia and 25 deaths sees the CMR rise to 1.787% although active cases drop to 8,599. NSW recorded 7 cases, SA recorded 1 with the balance in Victoria. The 25 deaths represent the worst day thus far since the pandemic began.

9 new cases and no deaths for NZ so CMR is 1.349% and active cases rise to 78.

The UK had 713 new cases and 3 deaths yesterday for a CMR of 12.960%.

Just over (a much lower) 37.5k new cases in the USA yesterday and 521 deaths sees CMR down to 3.110% and active cases at 44.4% with the raw numbers rising again. Note that the USA is actually minus one day due to time differences.

Other notable points:
The USA completes 71M, UAE 6M and India 31M tests;
Australia's CMR drops below that of both NZ and Russia;
Peru now has the 2nd worst deaths per 100k adults (104.89) behind only Belgium;

Lebanon (456) is the only country torecord a new daily high; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

[russellw]

Some of the modelling makes interesting reading.

For example, most models currently have the USA hitting anywhere between 12-20M confirmed infections and 205-250k deaths by the end of October but that is such a wide range as to be almost meaningless.

For what it's worth (frankly not much), my modelling suggests that the number of cases is likely to be somewhat lower than those predictions - somewhere between 7.5-10M with the greater likelihood at the lower end of that range if the current trends hold.

My model is in agreement with the range of deaths although it is likely to be at the lower end of that spectrum (205k) given the recent improvements.

The predictions for Australia are suggesting 1,525 deaths by the end of October but my modelling only has a range of 300-500 with weighting toward the lower end. My case number modelling has an unfortunately wide range due to the Victorian spike so the prediction is anything between 24-36K cases by the end of October.

[MercuryT]

Tasmania to keep it's borders shut to at least December 1st...…….

[MercuryT]

Vouchers up to 100 given out to Tasmanians to encourage travel and help the industry.

Better than nothing and hopefully helps those many struggling businesses

[MercuryT]

All you big islanders are Mexicans! ha

[PhilT2]

Sign up for the vaccine here.
https://www.nucleusnetwork.com/form/...kvJPKAFv8qktuk

I signed up but got rejected; no reason given, just didn't meet criteria. Age maybe.

[russellw]

214 new cases for Australia and 17 deaths sees the CMR rise to 1.842% although active cases drop to 8,406. NSW recorded 3 cases, WA recorded 1 with the balance in Victoria.

12 new cases and no deaths for NZ so CMR is 1.339% and active cases rise to 90.

The UK had 1,089 new cases and 12 deaths yesterday for a CMR of 12.920% although we know they are now not counting their mortalities by the WHO guidelines.

Just over 40.5k new cases in the USA yesterday and 589 deaths sees CMR down to 3.095% and active cases at 44.9% with the raw numbers still rising. Note that the USA is actually minus one day due to time differences.

Other notable points:
The USA completes 72M and Belgium 2M tests;
Global cases pass 22M with the last 1M taking 5 days;

Tunisia (129), Albania (155), Nepal (1,016) and Iraq (4,576) recorded new daily highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

[Charliewool]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ne-covid-cases
Pesky New Zealanders!!.... Really need to start taking advice from the man in control!

[Mr_G6ET]

Originally Posted by Charliewool

....taking advice from the man in control!

Unreal isn't it, another example of when he doesn't know that he sounds like an idiot

[PhilT2]

Originally Posted by Mr_G6ET

Unreal isn't it, another example of when he doesn't know that he sounds like an idiot

It's not just him.
https://crooksandliars.com/2020/08/a...-my-pillow-guy

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by Mr_G6ET

Unreal isn't it, another example of when he doesn't know that he sounds like an idiot

The thing is most people won't actually fact check what he says and when he's at a rally it's all his supporters anyway who'd just believe it.

The guy is a salesman who happens to be President of the USA, it's not surprising the guy uses sales tactics for everything.

There's 'telling lies' and there's bull****ting, this falls in the latter category and is sales 101.

[T3rminator]

Has anyone heard of "Plan D"?

Deliberately creating new strains of CV, infecting 30,000 volunteers, so that they can then trial different vaccines?!?!?! Geeeees....what could go wrong?

Are there even labs that can hold that many people? Actually I don't know if I want to know the answer to that.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/healt...llenge-trials/

[PooDog]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

The thing is most people won't actually fact check what he says and when he's at a rally it's all his supporters anyway who'd just believe it.

The guy is a salesman who happens to be President of the USA, it's not surprising the guy uses sales tactics for everything.

There's 'telling lies' and there's bull****ting, this falls in the latter category and is sales 101.

Slight correction .......most people should be most mericans

[Tickford.]

Originally Posted by PooDog

Slight correction .......most people should be most mericans

No correction needed. It's not just 'mericans. There's plenty idiots here in Australia too who believe every bit of bulls**t that comes out of his mouth. A few on this forum even. They seem to believe Trump is the messiah who's going to save them...

[PooDog]

Originally Posted by Charliewool

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ne-covid-cases
Pesky New Zealanders!!.... Really need to start taking advice from the man in control!

Yep hes set the example for us .....why dont we learn

[Franco Cozzo]

I keep hearing good things about the produce grown/made in Tassie.

Excellent - I would like to eat this, send it my way

[Citroënbender]

What - potato cakes?

[MercuryT]

Originally Posted by Citroënbender

What - potato cakes?

The best produce, fish, meat (especially beef), cheese and vegetable wise in Australia.

Only SA rivals Tassie with regard to quality of local products.

[Jack91]

Originally Posted by MercuryT

The best produce meat and vegetable wise in Australia.

I lived there for 5 years.
And that is a total lie.
Dont get me started on the seafood.

[MercuryT]

Originally Posted by Jack91

I lived there for 5 years.
And that is a total lie.
Dont get me started on the seafood.

Well you went to wrong places.

Tassie fish is distributed to the mainland before even enters markets here as such high demand.

[MITCHAY]

Some bloke has come back to work after a few days off. He got the Covid test and says it sucks hard as they might aswell shove the swab it into your brain

Doesn't have Covid but would appear to be like a severe cold or flu.

Which considering they are saying you're more likely to have Covid than the flu at the moment is quite an achievement

[Tickford.]

COVID vaccine likely to be mandatory in Australia, Scott Morrison says after signing deal with Oxford University

PM: "I would expect it to be as mandatory as you could possibly make it,"

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08-...atory/12572992


But not long after, he changed his mind. Probably after he realised the Hillsong Church has a lot of anti-vaxxers amongst it's members.

PM: "It's not going to be compulsory to have the vaccine,"

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08-...ments/12575600

[Citroënbender]

I’m far from anti-vax^* but this smacks of indecent haste. Have seen too many “chemical saviours” that show up later as a bad move. I would prefer known risk at present vs unknown potential side-effects.


^*Adult chicken pox was no fun, and I presume marked my lungs much as it did my skin... I’d recommend vaccination to avoid this, for example.

[MITCHAY]

Originally Posted by Tickford.

COVID vaccine likely to be mandatory in Australia, Scott Morrison says after signing deal with Oxford University

PM: "I would expect it to be as mandatory as you could possibly make it,"

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08-...atory/12572992


But not long after, he changed his mind. Probably after he realised the Hillsong Church has a lot of anti-vaxxers amongst it's members.

PM: "It's not going to be compulsory to have the vaccine,"

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08-...ments/12575600

I have faith that the majority of people will get it when it becomes available.

We've seen how ****ed it is with everything closed down or restricted.

[DJR-351]

Originally Posted by MITCHAY

I have faith that the majority of people will get it when it becomes available.

We've seen how ****ed it is with everything closed down or restricted.

I can almost guarantee those employers/employees in my (and other) industry will be 'encouraging' it, we lost heaps of qualified crew when the VIC/NSW spikes hit....

[Tickford.]

Originally Posted by MITCHAY

I have faith that the majority of people will get it when it becomes available.

We've seen how ****ed it is with everything closed down or restricted.

Hopefully you're right. But is there any real point if say.. 50% of the Australian population decide to get the vaccine, and the other half don't? The 50% that don't will still cause restrictions and lockdowns to continue, as there will still be outbreaks and transmission.

When you have idiots saying things like 'if you get the vaccine then you and your friends and family are safe' and/or 'you have no chance of becoming infected by someone that refused to take a vaccine', then I guess we should expect the current situation to remain unchanged for a very prolonged time.

It should be made 100% mandatory. And the people that refuse, they should not be allowed to enter workplaces, shopping centres, etc, etc, etc. They should be isolated from the rest of the country until they do get vaccinated. The people who get vaccinated should not have to pay a price for the idiots who don't.

[Franco Cozzo]

They were trying to encourage me to get the flu shot at work when they put on some free flu shot thing and got upset when I declined - **** that never had one in my life and im not starting now.

Covid vaccine (if it ever arrives) I'll probably wait it out for a bit to scope out effects because don't want to get autism from uncle Bill

[Mr_G6ET]

Hmm, Tickford and Franco need to chat offline
Im just gonna go stupid and say I dont know

I had first flu shot at 52, which was recent !