Ford vows to fight on after July shutdown

[neptune blue]

Originally Posted by Road_Warrior

Yeah you can't argue with sales numbers. Just ask Mazda with its record selling Mazda 3 how market leadership turns into profit (or should I say lack of) now that they're billions in debt globally.

We can go around in circles all day
Bottom line
Market share has to increase no if's or but's
If they can't sell enough of them they won't build them
Mitsubishi stopped making the magna because they couldn't sell any
It's that simple
Forum posts no matter how pasionate won't save the falcon

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by neptune blue

Forum posts no matter how pasionate won't save the falcon

But Territory might.....
The big question is whether the volume mix of Falcon to Territory is correct, should Ford be building more Territorys and less Falcons?
Sounds like Ford thinks so and could be an eloquent way to continue Falcon as the junior partner to Territory.

The fact that Ford is prepared to keep building until 2016 and try different things means they they haven't given up...

So neither should we...

Thank you Geoff Polites..

[neptune blue]

Originally Posted by jpd80

But Territory might.....
The big question is whether the volume mix of Falcon to Territory is correct, should Ford be building more Territorys and less Falcons?
Sounds like Ford thinks so and could be an eloquent way to continue Falcon as the junior partner to Territory.

The fact that Ford is prepared to keep building until 2016 and try different things means they they haven't given up...

So neither should we...

Thank you Geoff Polites..

Certainly if a business case can be built on a low volume dedicated line for the falcon that is profitable we might see it survive beyond 2016

All comes down to the bucks

[Nikked]

The FG is a big change from the BA/BF falcon...more then a evolution...it is a revolution.

The AU was still, at its heart, and E-Series falcon. With the EA being a huge re imaging of the basic falcon platform that had existed from the XR right through to the XF

The FG gave us a falcon with a different door frame arangment, unlike the EA-BF where the doors shut into the roof. Then there is the composite radiator support, a move away from the 3-box shape that the falcon had since the XK.

And now we have a turbo 4 pot, something that would have never been on people's minds when the XK rolled out.

The EA started out as a car that could sit up there with the Euro's in style, and over the years it filterd out. We got the AU, australias brave attempt at not only pleasing fords global design language, but head office...who had proposed its own american designed vision with the AU.

The BA came around, not as radical or challanging as the AU, But a safe camry-ish design to fit into the marketplace.

The FG is the EA 20 years later.

And the situation is repeated...XD, EA, AU where all ment to be replaced with something else...

[neptune blue]

Originally Posted by Elks

I have a work supplied VE CaliasV 6.0 that ran out of brake on 3 seperate occasions and was told by Holden that there was nothing wrong with it. After I crashed it (minor fender bender only) they put a new master cylender in it.

Drama's with 6 speed auto's, flickeing gauges. Dont believe the grass is greener.

Mate don't start banging on about quality
I had an EB falcon fairmont that had to have just about the entire front end replaced 6 months in
I also had a VS Commodore that wrecked 3water pumps in 12 months

What do they say about people that live in glass houses

[washoutbeach]

FTW Falcon.

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by neptune blue

Certainly if a business case can be built on a low volume dedicated line for the falcon that is profitable we might see it survive beyond 2016

All comes down to the bucks

A lot of that is renegotiation with suppliers for the different mix and quantities of parts,
it basically costs the same to build a Territory as a Falcon but Ford arguably gets more
return on the Territory and since the money has already been spent on SZ and FG II, so
all that left is to build as many of each that buyers want, there's still plenty of revenue
that can be recovered over the next four years even at a meagre 36,000 per year,
that's still around 150,000 sales in the next four years or around $4.5 billion in revenue,
all for a piddling $103 million extra...in 2014 and half of that comes from the government..

[stevz]

Originally Posted by jpd80

A lot of that is renegotiation with suppliers for the different mix and quantities of parts,
it basically costs the same to build a Territory as a Falcon but Ford arguably gets more
return on the Territory and since the money has already been spent on SZ and FG II, so
all that left is to build as many of each that buyers want, there's still plenty of revenue
that can be recovered over the next four years even at a meagre 36,000 per year,
that's still around 150,000 sales in the next four years or around $4.5 billion in revenue,
all for a piddling $103 million extra...in 2014 and half of that comes from the government..

Once again, do you have any official figures to back up your claims, or is this just the usual hearsay/speculation? I think its the latter.

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by stevz

Once again, do you have any official figures to back up your claims, or is this just the usual hearsay/speculation? I think its the latter.

What claims would that be?
I merely state a projection of revenue based on current sales x 48 months x a very soft $30,000 per sale.
Ford received $103 million for 2014 update, $53 million came from Victoria and federal governments.

I can't make it more simple than that,

Now run away you red shirt troll..

And for the record, I believe that Holden's revenue from local production will be $12 billion over the same period....

[jpd80]

Unlike some who like to snipe, I'm prepared to accept if I'm wrong but I don't understand the attack.

Can anyone totally refute what I said in my post as being completely wrong or specualtive in the extreme?
The 36,000 I refer to below is for combined Falcon-Territory-Ute production.

Originally Posted by jpd80
1) A lot of that is renegotiation with suppliers for the different mix and quantities of parts,

2) it basically costs the same to build a Territory as a Falcon

3) but Ford arguably gets more return on the Territory

4) and since the money has already been spent on SZ and FG II,

5)so all that left is to build as many of each that buyers want,

6) there's still plenty of revenue that can be recovered over the next four years

7) even at a meagre 36,000 per year, that's still around 150,000 sales in the next four years

8) or around $4.5 billion in revenue,

'9) all for a piddling $103 million extra...in 2014

10) and half of that comes from the government..

[neptune blue]

Revenue figures always look good
What you need to factor in is cost
Do you know what fords production costs are going to be over that same period

Revenue
Less cost
Equals profit which is what matters , these guys are not a non for profit organization

No profit = no falcon and the loss of jobs which is the real tradgety

[stevz]

Originally Posted by jpd80

What claims would that be?
I merely state a projection of revenue based on current sales x 48 months x a very soft $30,000 per sale.
Ford received $103 million for 2014 update, $53 million came from Victoria and federal governments.

I can't make it more simple than that,

Now run away you red shirt troll..

And for the record, I believe that Holden's revenue from local production will be $12 billion over the same period....

You like to waffle on about financial figures and theories and put them across as fact like you are some sort of professor of the automotive industry, but in reality you have never presented any real evidence or official figures to support your claims.
Do you have official figures in front of you showing the actual cost of building a Falcon compared to a Territory? I didn't think so. How then, can you make such claims?
The only people who can provide truly accurate information in this regard are those who hold positions within the companies themselves, and clearly you do not.
If I went back through your posts I could find plenty of your claims which have been proven to be false or inaccurate, so maybe you shouldn't keep putting across hearsay/speculation/theories/opinions as fact.

[knowsfords]

I still think the falcon sales wouldn't be a problem if they actually advertised the freaking things -_-

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by neptune blue

Revenue figures always look good
What you need to factor in is cost
Do you know what fords production costs are going to be over that same period

Revenue
Less cost
Equals profit which is what matters , these guys are not a non for profit organization

No profit = no falcon and the loss of jobs which is the real tradgety

It's not that simple, there's off shoring of costs to other Ford centers and parts networks..
The total cost of Ford Australia's production activity in terms of sales to other regions also has to be considered.

Holden does the same with engines, parts, power trains and lots of parts from off shore suppliers
so the true value of local production to each car maker is not as easy as a profit per car analysis,
not when our cars may well be giving other regions income as well..
Eg, we look at the local revenue of Holden at $3.0 billion and see costs but GM
charges itself for supplying a lot of parts and likewise, Ford does the same.

On top of all of that, there's no guarantee that switching to other vehicles would give
the same or better income, so there's no rush to change away from local production.

[neptune blue]

Exactly
I am in agreeance with you entirely
So I go back to what I have been saying all along
The falcon will live or die by how much money it does or doesn't make nothing else will matter , it is that black and white, forget everything else ... Does any one else understand this, you know profit , IT HAS TO BE PROFITABLE do we now all understand

Now, I have worked with Ford , Toyota and Holden for many years and all the indicators point to very difficult times a head for both of our local iconic motor cars

Let's hope they can survive as we need them here building motor cars
So that's all I have to say on the subject
Thank you umpire, thank you ball boys
Going back to talking about classic fords as they are more fun !
Cheers to all

[FGX-351]

Originally Posted by neptune blue

Ford shot its self in the head when they killed off the GT and the V8 a few years later where Holden kept their performance car program and V8 going

Then Ford made their biggest mistake the AU and has never recovered
Holden coincidently designed one of their prettiest cars the VT at the same time

Thats undertandable but it does work both ways.

When Holden dropped the Kingswood and replaced it with the VB generation commodores buyers left in droves and as a result they were soundly dominated in the market from XD-ED, they almost went out of business but they still bounced back so I dont entirely believe your theory has to much of an effect.

As for GT sales I thought they were always steady?

[FGX-351]

Originally Posted by neptune blue

You can bag the VT all you want but you can't bag the sales figures ( most popular Holden since the HQ)
The VT spawned the rebirth of the Monaro
The general dominated the market for years
I happened to get an industry invite to the Sydney motor show when the commodore coupe was unveiled
You shoulld have seen the look on the faces of the execs at the ford stand when the cover came off
Crushed doesn't come close to describing them


Sorry but you can't argue with the numbers
I realy do hope ford can turn it around but sadly I think our falcon will be no more

I dont believe the market to be that petty, at the end of the day people will put value and low running costs before anything else.
I also believe the market has a short term memory.

In reference to my previous post the XF was the biggest selling Falcon of all time and soundly dominated the VL Commodore 278,101 to 151,801.
Even with Brock and HDT selling cars like hot cakes it never translated to the bread and butter models.
Holden still went on to great heights in the 90s(LS1 era anyone :( lol)

The rebirth of the Monaro was great for the fan base but in reality its sales(failed export program aside) weren't so spectacular, hence no VE Munro.

Just my opinion so could be wrong but I believe the AU situation was completely rectified by the BA and BF model cycles.

[FGX-351]

Originally Posted by stevz

I think its the latter.

So you could also be wrong?

You made reference to jpd's posts before but to be honest all of your posts that i've seen are all negative without fail.

Why so serious? lol

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by The-ShowStoPPa

So you could also be wrong?

I do have some figures on Falcon and Territory costs, they're very old and outdated now but
knowing how Ford has worked to contain costs internally, I'm pretty comfortable with my posts.
All I'd say is look at the historic sale price of XR6 and Terry RWD I-6, they're reasonably close..

I do a lot of research and have some good friends at Ford and Holden as well as contacts in the US.
Sometimes my Info is good, other times I come up with a lemon, but I 'fess up when wrong..

[FGX-351]

Originally Posted by jpd80

I do have some figures on Falcon and Territory costs, they're very old and outdated now but
knowing how Ford has worked to contain costs internally, I'm pretty comfortable with my posts.
All I'd say is look at the historic sale price of XR6 and Terry RWD I-6, they're reasonably close..

I do a lot of research and have some good friends at Ford and Holden as well as contacts in the US.
Sometimes my Info is good, other times I come up with a lemon, but I 'fess up when wrong..

Sorry man my comment was aimed at Stevs not you.
Wouldnt question your posts.

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by The-ShowStoPPa

Sorry man my comment was aimed at Stevs not you.
Wouldnt question your posts.

Question everything, I get very infrequent and mostly out of date info.
Sometimes my sources are way off but most times they are on the money.
Hidden amongst the blather are grains of truth, it up to smart people to see it.

[BHDOGS]

the only good news if ford shuts up shop is holden wont be long after which is good means all the holden trolls on this forum can finally f o

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by BHDOGS

the only good news if ford shuts up shop is holden wont be long after which is good means all the holden trolls on this forum can finally f o

Aww mate, i wish but they're like nut grass.....

[FTE]

Regardless of what people think today of AU it is a great car. I hated it when it came out and loved VT like most others. Having owned VT11 senator signature, VU SS, VY SS sedan and VZ SS ute I can say the AU holds its own to these cars. Sure it lacks the power but it still sounds great and it's a beautiful drive. My last new car was the VZ SS and haven't found a suitable car from either Holden and ford. We've currently gone back to VY SS and AU xr8 simply because we like how these cars drive much more than the current series of both camps. The FG was nice for about 50km but over 500km I was well sick of it. VE just doesn't do it for me.

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by FTE

Regardless of what people think today of AU it is a great car. I hated it when it came out and loved VT like most others. Having owned VT11 senator signature, VU SS, VY SS sedan and VZ SS ute I can say the AU holds its own to these cars. Sure it lacks the power but it still sounds great and it's a beautiful drive. My last new car was the VZ SS and haven't found a suitable car from either Holden and ford. We've currently gone back to VY SS and AU xr8 simply because we like how these cars drive much more than the current series of both camps. The FG was nice for about 50km but over 500km I was well sick of it. VE just doesn't do it for me.

I have similar feelings to yourself, AU was way too revolutionary for the time but every time
I look at my father in Law's AU Fairmont Ghia, the interior wreaks of true luxury, it was well finished.

[jpd80]

More down days in July including another down week, not good but at least
it looks like Ford is resisting a down balance of production line speed and employees.


I wonder if another increase in Territory production would allow Ford to swap those discounted Falcon sedans
for discounted TX RWD Territory, offering the I-6 RWD for $34,990 drive away might get the markets blood going
where it's been indifferent to the large sedan...the market seems hungry for SUVs so why not try a different tack.

[stevz]

Originally Posted by The-ShowStoPPa

Wouldnt question your posts.

So in other words you're that gullible that you blindly believe every word he says?

[Dr Smith]

Originally Posted by stevz

You like to waffle on about financial figures and theories and put them across as fact like you are some sort of professor of the automotive industry, but in reality you have never presented any real evidence or official figures to support your claims.
Do you have official figures in front of you showing the actual cost of building a Falcon compared to a Territory? I didn't think so. How then, can you make such claims?
The only people who can provide truly accurate information in this regard are those who hold positions within the companies themselves, and clearly you do not.
If I went back through your posts I could find plenty of your claims which have been proven to be false or inaccurate, so maybe you shouldn't keep putting across hearsay/speculation/theories/opinions as fact.

And what enlightenment do you bring to this forum apart from banging on about posts the orginator never claims to be 100% fact but rather estimates based on past info or researched data. This is not a royal commission so if you don't like the posts, prove it wrong through your own facts, counter it thoughtfully and less aggressively or just stop logging on. Please explain why it even raises your bp the way it obviously does.

[Fordman1]

Originally Posted by stevz

So in other words you're that gullible that you blindly believe every word he says?

And who are you ?

How do you contribute usefully to this forum ? It seems to me you are here to criticise and troll the OP

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by stevz

So in other words you're that gullible that you blindly believe every word he says?

That's right. Everyone else is a moron except for you...

Originally Posted by Barraxr8

And who are you ?

How do you contribute usefully to this forum ? It seems to me you are here to criticise and troll the OP

In fairness, what got his blood up was the claim by me that Falcon and Territory are similar costs to build.


While this would at first glance sound like something hard to prove, I can show how this is plausible
by data in the public arena - we need only look at the the annual sale of Territory SR and Falcon SR
which were sold for very similar prices, it was Geoff Polites wish that as many wagon owners as
possible would transfer over to the RWD Territory and to do that, the price had to be similar
andtuntil the SZ Territory arrived, the bulk of Territory sales were in fact RWD I-6s of mostly TX and TS.
So the plan worked but Territory needed the diesel years ago to build the other side of the business..

Short story,
If Falcon SR and Territory SR (RWD) were that different in build costs,
Ford would have never offered them for near similar prices.

Back on topic,

IMO, Ford should build more RWD I-6 Territorys and less XR6 sedans, the market clearly wants SUVs, not large sedans.
So there's a great opportunity to switch production emphasis and follow the trend without costing an arm and a leg.