Australia housing bubble

[fordomatic]

It's interesting all this doom and gloom though, read a report today that even with the national house price average coming down 2.5%, we are still 21% up from March 2020. Not so bad when you look at it that way.

[Citroënbender]

The “doom and gloom” of this latest rise - on a $1M mortgage, 25 year term it’s poised to be about another $10/day (or less).

Without sounding flippant, surely most people affected that far, could face up to a challenge like this?

[Giant Cranium]

Originally Posted by Citroënbender

The “doom and gloom” of this latest rise - on a $1M mortgage, 25 year term it’s poised to be about another $10/day (or less).

Without sounding flippant, surely most people affected that far, could face up to a challenge like this?

Especially since fuel is 1.65 now. Saving $70 a week in fuel

[Romulus]

Originally Posted by Giant Cranium

Especially since fuel is 1.65 now. Saving $70 a week in fuel

Don't worry, the 22cpl excise goes back on end September.

[Citroënbender]

How far up are term deposit interest rates likely to go? It’s been a quantum shift in twelve months, can get 3,25% on $5K or more without trying - compared to barely 0,25% a year back.

[hackney]

Originally Posted by Romulus

Don't worry, the 22cpl excise goes back on end September.

Maybe, that is still uncertain @ this stage.

[Yellow_Festiva]

Originally Posted by Citroënbender

The “doom and gloom” of this latest rise - on a $1M mortgage, 25 year term it’s poised to be about another $10/day (or less).

Without sounding flippant, surely most people affected that far, could face up to a challenge like this?

That depends on if they were honest in their application. I assume people with such a high mortgage are also now paying more across the board like everyone else.

Once the pain becomes in the hundreds and soon thousands extra per month that's when we will see the true impact of these rises.

[zilo]

Funny how quickly the ABC had the sookey stories about the poor people who are being hammered by that nasty RBA putting up the rates by a thumping 0.5%....

What's funnier is that the production team would have been assembling the story many days before the rate increase was announced.

And it's always the same plot...single mum...deposit based on grants from govt...big home with theatre room....blah blah

Then there's the poor darling daughter with the teddy bear who thought she would get her own room...

Where's the father for the other income...?

[MITCHAY]

First time my rate has been higher than when I got the loan which was 3.79 i think. 4.27 from next week as expected. I've been tipping more money in extra repayments each rate rise.

[Yellow_Festiva]

Got a notification from realestate.com app that the auction clearance rate has dropped to 51% or something similar.

It was broken down further but I was shocked at the amount that were passed in.

In a bit over 2 weeks will have another RBA decision. I'm thinking it will be another .5% seeing as inflation is still up there.

If we think our situation is bad consider these guys:

The country where interest rates are almost 70 per cent - and inflation already is
The cost of living crunch is hitting us hard in Australia - but a look at what’s happening overseas shines a different light on our current struggles.

Argentina’s central bank raised its benchmark interest rate by 950 basis points on Thursday as the country struggles to keep a lid on spiralling inflation that rose to a 20-year high of 71 per cent, according to new data.

The central bank raised the benchmark rate for the 28-day term to 69.5 per cent from 60 per cent, a rate the bank set just two weeks ago when it hiked the rate by 800 basis points and the government shuffled its cabinet to install a new economy “superminister.”

New inflation data on Thursday underscored the urgency driving economic policy: Prices rose 7.4 per cent in July, above expectations and pushing annual inflation to a 20-year high of 71 per cent. The month saw the resignation of President Alberto Fernandez’s long time finance minister, followed by the ouster of his replacement.

https://7news.com.au/news/the-countr...y-is-c-7862928

[FTE217]

asagaai, yep re the good ol hard wood beams used of yesteryer.
Going through a small reno last month and ongoing at home, wife wanted higher ceilings so we had to knock off some of the classic timber as you mentioned.
I've kept it aside for it wasn't going in the skip bin - too good to throw, thinking about yep will be firewood but I probably will find something else to do with it tbh for its unreal decent timber.

Re the termites, I have heard depending how good the treated pine is ? for been known they have eaten through some, maybe it wasn't treated enough OR they have become immune like us who had covid19 shots lol.......

[ford71V8]

I've seen 2.5mm2 3-core cable eaten through.
Termites were everywhere, but left the staircase and went for the power.

[Citroënbender]

Here’s a fruiting body (fungal growth) on seven months old LOSP treated MGP10 structural pine.

While this is fully exposed, it’s not that different a situation to (say) an eaves leak or persistent gutter overflow. The wood is, frankly, rubbish. LOSP treated timber is seen as a part of termite resistance strategy where this is required by the BCA.

There should be more recycling of hardwood from demolition works, but the vain pride of two major ethnic groups buying into the housing boom precludes used materials, and the effort to assay, process, sell is seen as unviable. I don’t think it is, but that’s the attitude.

[b0son]

It makes you wonder why they havent invented termite-proof weep holes yet.

[asagaai]

I hate termites. When I built my first house on a steep block, it was built on 4 levels running up a hill. Builder stuffed up cut and set it 800 in too deep, which meant I had larger retaining walls needed and defeated the whole purpose of multi levels running up hill.

I had no money, and built retaining walls using railway sleepers. 20 years and termites got into them. About 4.5 years ago, I had to sell the house, and again had no money and had to rip out and rebuild the retaining wall on lower level. As money was tight I did all the work myself.

Here is the earth cut and steel ready for footing pour and first block to be placed into concrete set wet.

Here is long treated pine I replaced supporting deck, replaced due to rot, coated in tar to increase protection, and extended into footing of retaining wall to prevent surcharge of load onto retaining wall

Finished retaining wall- termite proof

I absolutely detest termites- put me through hell.

[roKWiz]

Here's a good example of mixing treated pine and non treated pine in the roofing, easy to see in a new build spotted today. At least they have their pointless termite barrier around.

[buggerlugs]

New Zealand prices dropped 15%
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-08-...fall/101353350

[zilo]

Originally Posted by buggerlugs

New Zealand prices dropped 15%
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-08-...fall/101353350

RBA meeting next on 6th September....should be interesting.

[hackney]

I would say 50 basis points that rate is going to rise by.We have just sold our home, quite lucky really.We got pretty close to what we were asking.Our agent said that enquires have all but dried up, this is also coming from another agent I know.The market has tanked, auctions are off the boil & clearance rates have dropped.We our now in the ‘box seat’ in as far as purchasing a property(& do have our eye on one) will more than likely make a pre auction offer, vendors are keen to move & seem pretty amicable to our terms as it benefits both parties.

[Citroënbender]

Here we are, a month later… Have the “waiters and watchers” actually moved closer to a purchase?

I’m not feeling optimistic about the first world global economy, longer term. And on a shorter term local scale I believe the belligerence in some parts of our economy will allow them to sustain outgoings while less assertive sectors get bent over.

With real estate in my area, prices seem to have rebounded firmly after a brief dip and the social cachet is appended to arranged viewings, “private treaty” sales, now preferred versus the peasantry of on-site auctions last year. Yes, the closing prices are still down on where previous trajectory would have taken them, but far from a collapse.

[hackney]

Originally Posted by Citroënbender

Here we are, a month later… Have the “waiters and watchers” actually moved closer to a purchase?

I’m not feeling optimistic about the first world global economy, longer term. And on a shorter term local scale I believe the belligerence in some parts of our economy will allow them to sustain outgoings while less assertive sectors get bent over.

With real estate in my area, prices seem to have rebounded firmly after a brief dip and the social cachet is appended to arranged viewings, “private treaty” sales, now preferred versus the peasantry of on-site auctions last year. Yes, the closing prices are still down on where previous trajectory would have taken them, but far from a collapse.

Yup, I sold our place,@ pretty close to what it was listed for.Bought in the A.C.T. New home, fell over @ auction initially, then had a price ‘correction’ still sat there.Made an offer well below that & was accepted! Stoked with the purchase, house is a 4/3/2.Lovely house!Canberra market is insane! Timed it just right & was also lucky to be in the right place @ the right time.

[buggerlugs]

Been down near Ballarat for a few months cleaning up our bush block. Farms and rural land still selling quickly and most houses advertised in town have sold signs on them. Building still going at a crazy rate. Indians chasing Mother in laws block on 10 acres. Has recently been rezoned from rural to res. Started at $900k, up to $2.4 mill last week. Targeting her neighbor's as well. Thought it would slow down but it doesn't seem to of.........

Yet....

[Citroënbender]

It may change if the “citizenship by investment” criteria is adjusted to remove property plays as portions of that investment. At present it’s a mockery of fairness.

[Citroënbender]

Another ABC article about housing, more factual/less bleat than many they publish:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-10-...2022/101495078

But the following graph from this article suggests a market correction is likely to still validate ideas of longer term stable growth.

(Image taken from link above.)

[T3rminator]

The perfect storm coming? Might be a good test for Basel 3 me thinks.

There are some serious rumours doing the rounds about a major bank failure
https://www.forexlive.com/news/there...lure-20221002/

[xkxlxm]

It seems that the Reserve Bank will announce another interest rate rise today ... I thought interest rates weren't going to rise until 2024?

[FTE217]

don't know where yopu heard that xkx***.
Last I recall there was going to be at least 5/6......

oh no its the end of the world, don't buy don't sell just hold tight, good times will comeback

[Citroënbender]

I can remember the RBA acolytes back in the early nineties, having a drunk ditty about Bernie Fraser walking on water. And what PJK did to his daughter.

[xkxlxm]

I was just referring to Lowe's comment (a year ago? less than a year ago?) that official interest rates were unlikely to rise until 2024.

He should have kept his mouth shut. (I have to admit that is sometimes easier said than done).

[T3rminator]

My broker mate told me just before the rate rises hit "don't follow the RBA, follow the banks". My only regret is that I only fixed my loan for 2 years and not longer as he had advised.