Covid 19 -

[slowsnake]

Anything happening in Russia Russell?
Just watching ABC news, they mentioned climbing cases of covid there?

Billy.

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by cs123

I would imagine that Victoria will trend down over the next month while NSW will trend up.

Victoria is in Mockdown for the last 6 weeks

Yep. However, the last couple of evenings there has been noticeably less cars on the road, inner east suburbs. Even the city has been quieter than usual in terms of cars. I suspect the price of fuel may have had a better "stay at home" effect than CHO orders.

[T3rminator]

Whats the go with isolation rules at the moment? Friend of mine that got tested last satday, result came back positive on Tuesday. So basically, symptoms started last Thursday, got tested Satday, confirmed Tuesday. When asked how long she needs to isolate for, she said "I should be good to go on the weekend".....ehhhh what? Obviously keen for a catch up but I'm not so sure!! Not worried for myself, but moreso what if I bring it back to my parents.

Checking on the vic gov site:

"If you test positive we will contact you. You will need to self-isolate until the Department of Health tells you it is safe to stop - usually 10 to 14 days."

That seems a bit open ended. So DHHS can suggest any number of days now?

Interestingly enough, she thinks she caught it from one of her outdoor meetings with a couple of others, friend and friend's mother. She gave the mother a hug when leaving. Mother also tested positive, but friend negative.

[FoxtrotGolfXray 5.0]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

Whats the go with isolation rules at the moment? Friend of mine that got tested last satday, result came back positive on Tuesday. So basically, symptoms started last Thursday, got tested Satday, confirmed Tuesday. When asked how long she needs to isolate for, she said "I should be good to go on the weekend".....ehhhh what? Obviously keen for a catch up but I'm not so sure!! Not worried for myself, but moreso what if I bring it back to my parents.

Checking on the vic gov site:

"If you test positive we will contact you. You will need to self-isolate until the Department of Health tells you it is safe to stop - usually 10 to 14 days."

That seems a bit open ended. So DHHS can suggest any number of days now?

Interestingly enough, she thinks she caught it from one of her outdoor meetings with a couple of others, friend and friend's mother. She gave the mother a hug when leaving. Mother also tested positive, but friend negative.

Not sure which DHHS page you're looking at, T3, but this page says:

How long does isolation last?
If you have COVID-19 you need to isolate for at least 14 days.

The Department of Health will let you know what date your isolation ends.

Not sure if that helps, as it is potentially conflicting advice, but my understanding is that you need to spend 14 days isolating after returning a positive test result.

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by FoxtrotGolfXray 5.0

Not sure which DHHS page you're looking at, T3, but this page says:







Not sure if that helps, as it is potentially conflicting advice, but my understanding is that you need to spend 14 days isolating after returning a positive test result.

DHHS


https://www.coronavirus.vic.gov.au/g...sults-covid-19

[Itsme]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

Whats the go with isolation rules at the moment? Friend of mine that got tested last satday, result came back positive on Tuesday. So basically, symptoms started last Thursday, got tested Satday, confirmed Tuesday. When asked how long she needs to isolate for, she said "I should be good to go on the weekend".....ehhhh what? Obviously keen for a catch up but I'm not so sure!! Not worried for myself, but moreso what if I bring it back to my parents.

Checking on the vic gov site:

"If you test positive we will contact you. You will need to self-isolate until the Department of Health tells you it is safe to stop - usually 10 to 14 days."

That seems a bit open ended. So DHHS can suggest any number of days now?

Interestingly enough, she thinks she caught it from one of her outdoor meetings with a couple of others, friend and friend's mother. She gave the mother a hug when leaving. Mother also tested positive, but friend negative.

Getting correct info from Vic DHHS is like a dogs breakfast; I know three guys from work who now have covid and each one of them will tell you a different version of information from DHHS as to their requirement of what to do.
Its just like if DHHS information is being ad-lib

[FoxtrotGolfXray 5.0]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

DHHS


https://www.coronavirus.vic.gov.au/g...sults-covid-19

Yes, frustrating that they have conflicting information.

But, I feel for the folks keeping the pages updated; the rules change frequently, the same information is recorded in multiple pages across multiple sites.

Irrespective of that, I think it's safe to say that your friend should not be out this weekend!

[Citroënbender]

T3 - I’d be giving that case a wide berth, this is your anti-vaxette friend, right? She may be longer in recovery…

As to Slowsnake’s question, the ABC news touched on it today - Russia has topped 1000 deaths per day. Low vaccination rates are held to be a big part of it. Old people (tongue-in-cheek; just over ‘60s) are locked down from October 25^th rather than a total lockdown as that apparently damaged Vladimir Vladimirovitch’s approval ratings a bit last time.

[Polyal]

Same with masks at the moment. At work we wear them depending on head count in the room, if you are in or outside, or if you have had 1 or 2 jabs...how can it go wrong.

Would have been better to just say keep them on for another month or so at work..done.

[FoxtrotGolfXray 5.0]

Originally Posted by Citroënbender

T3 - I’d be giving that case a wide berth, this is your anti-vaxette friend, right? She may be longer in recovery…

As to Slowsnake’s question, the ABC news touched on it today - Russia has topped 1000 deaths per day. Low vaccination rates are held to be a big part of it. Old people (tongue-in-cheek; just over ‘60s) are locked down from October 25^th rather than a total lockdown as that apparently damaged Vladimir Vladimirovitch’s approval ratings a bit last time.

Do approval ratings really matter to him at all?

[russellw]

Originally Posted by slowsnake

Anything happening in Russia Russell?
Just watching ABC news, they mentioned climbing cases of covid there?

Billy.

Russia has a 10-day average of 31k cases per day which is well above the 90th percentile of 25k and 5 of the last 7 days have set new records. That's also well above the 18k / day average for September and also (obviously) the highest rolling average they have had since the pandemic began.

Unfortunately, we know their mortality figures have been grossly understated but even so their CMR of 2.795% (across 8M cases) is well above that of the USA and UK.

Various estimates put the real figure at well more than the 225k 'official' number with ROSSTAT (the Soviet stats bureau) reporting their number as almost 300k (2 months ago) and the deputy PM saying that 81% of the 473k excess deaths for 2020 and 2021 (to the end of May) were COVID deaths.

Who'd know what to believe but we do know this much based on one month of hard data for one month (July 2021):

Officially reported deaths: 23,349
ROSSTAT - deaths of people with COVID: 50,241

.. but then we start with the spin:

Of the 50,241, ROSSTAT claimed 38,992 as directly related to COVID - still well above the official numbers but then they also said that:

- a further 5,206 has COVID as the 'likely' main cause;
- 1,449 had COVID as a contributing cause; and
the remaining 4,844 weren't related to the virus even though they had it at the time of death.

So, if we use the WHO guidelines then the real figure for that month was 45,397 (excluding the 4,844) which is still almost twice the official figure, which in turn would lend some credence to the view that the real number is likely somewhere near 450k deaths and a rough cross-check with the estimated 81% of excess deaths up to May this year (383k) suggest it could be even higher given the almost 3M cases since the beginning of April 2021.

Even if we settled on 450k that would make the CMR 5.5% which only leaves a handful of countries worse like Ecuador (6.4%), Mexico (7.5%) and Peru (9.1%).

Worth noting that the current excess deaths in Russia to the end of September is in the range of 770-880k (as identified by The Economist) so if we worked on the same 81% quoted by the deputy PM that would be between 620-712k COVID deaths. or a CMR between 7.69% and 8.83%.

[Citroënbender]

Originally Posted by FoxtrotGolfXray 5.0

Do approval ratings really matter to him at all?

I would say yes. Popularity matters a lot to him; he’s genuinely popular and wants it to stay so. Ask any Russian friends who migrated post-2000, how many people they know have his portrait hanging.

(This is an indirect way of saying that I believe their past Covid death rates were probably not accurately recorded…)

[russellw]

It should be noted that Russia is by no means Robinson Crusoe when it comes to under reporting mortalities related to COVID. The data below is based on excess mortality data for each of the countries.

India is widely considered to have underestimated by at least 0.6M with even the most conservative estimates putting the real numbers at 1.2M rather than the 452k official number. Clearly, the current 1.32% CMR was never going to be correct given the massive outbreak earlier this year and even the 3.5% that 1.2M deaths gives might still be light.

The USA is probably light by close to 120k deaths given how some States have reported and that would move their CMR from 1.63% --> 1.957%.

We know Indonesia have under-reported and the conservative estimates put the real numbers at 445k rather than the 143k official number. That would move the CMR from an already poor 3.37% to more than 10% and some commentators think the numbers might be as high as 1M deaths.

We know Pakistan have under-reported and the conservative estimates put the real numbers at 300k rather than the 28k official number. That would move the CMR from a worse than average 2.23% to more than 20% although it's clear case numbers have been under-reported too.

Likewise with China. The official 4.6k figure, which we all know is fantasy, is at least 120k and maybe as high as 1M. The official CMR is already bad at 4.85% but there would also be lots of cases not reported given the official case numbers are less than the estimated mortalities!

Others to be at least suspected of seriously under-reporting mortalities and/or cases include: Bangladesh, Turkey, Mexico, Egypt, Iran, Iraq and most African countries.

Indeed, given that this data is based on the excess mortalities 2020 and 2021 YTD and the fact that countries like Australia have actually recorded an overall reduction in mortalities, the real numbers could be worse.

On that topic, our excess mortalities for that period are -3.5k or so, despite the 1,500 COVID deaths. It's perhaps an unintended consequence of the lockdowns but in simple terms:

- ~800 people didn't die from Influenza;
- ~200 people didn't die on our roads;
- ~ 2k people didn't die from other respiratory diseases; and
there were less heart attacks and strokes.

[Trevor 57]

It is getting really difficult to believe any media these days, I used to trust ABC but they have gone too far left, even for me - SBS is a good alternative but not as much local content as others

[Citroënbender]

Originally Posted by Trevor 57

It is getting really difficult to believe any media these days, I used to trust ABC but they have gone too far left, even for me - SBS is a good alternative but not as much local content as others

I’ve found the ABC to have become increasingly “preachy” and absorbed in slightly off-centre agendæ that must reflect particular concerns or experiences of key staff. There’s the instructive guides; “What to do when your child vomits on the neighbour’s carpet”, the kangaroo court podcasts that skew legal procedure and jeopardise outcomes, the relentless pro-vaccination stories. I’d not be surprised if they started sending out foot-soldiers to doorknock with offerings of Vaxtower magazine.

Aside from all that, I have one wondering about the “fortress states” (particularly WA) - are people within genuinely still willing, as a majority, to pursue indefinite insularity versus the options of external travel? Or are there measurable voices of dissent?

[Trevor 57]

There must be some dissenters in W.A. surely, we never hear anything

[Ben73]

Originally Posted by MITCHAY

Common sense has prevailed and non essential retail now open in ACT from Friday.

Bunnings is gonna get wrecked over the weekend. People have been driving out to Goulburn

Bunnings isn't essential in ACT?

In NSW everything is essential apart from restaurants, pubs and holidays it seems.

[GasoLane]

Originally Posted by Trevor 57

There must be some dissenters in W.A. surely, we never hear anything

Probably all busy manning the machine gun posts on the borders

[T3rminator]

Quite an interesting evening out at middle park beach tonight. Didn't think we were officially out of lock down yet, but there were restaurants serving food and alcohol with patrons dining outside.

Heaps of "cruisers" on Beaconsfield (aka hoon) Pde. Obviously all cashed up during lock down and ready to let go, cops were picking them off one by one, with quite a few pushing the boundaries. Can't say I didn't enjoy listening to the rumbles!

[MITCHAY]

Originally Posted by Ben73

Bunnings isn't essential in ACT?

In NSW everything is essential apart from restaurants, pubs and holidays it seems.

They shut them down to the public after 19000 check ins in one day during lockdown

Only tradies were allowed but otherwise it was click and collect or delivery. Don't recall it ever being quiet at my local one.

[jaydee]

Originally Posted by Trevor 57

There must be some dissenters in W.A. surely, we never hear anything

Nope, most of us are pretty happy with our life style over here at the moment, free to go where ever, when ever, no masks.

There are some rumblings because they can't catch up with family from over east, but that's collateral damage.
Although I do feel sorry for people who haven't seen family for 12 months or more, but unfortunately that's the way it is.
Either enjoy our freedoms, or risk the bug and go into lock downs, quarantining, masks etc.

To be honest, our health system is a mess and couldn't cope if there was a flu outbreak let alone Covid, and the government is super scared of it getting into the indigenous communities.

We're nearly at 80%, but the indigenous are only at about 20%, need to be taken by the hand and taken in for a shot.

[slowsnake]

We/us residents of WA live normal pre-covid lives, nothing here has changed since our 1st and only lockdown in March-April 2020!
It only affects travellers from arriving from Intrastate and International travellers, by air or sea!
You would not know that there is a covid pandemic happening on our planet, not from WA anyway, it seems we have been missed, it really does not affect our lives here, unless of course we want to leave our safe haven!

[Itsme]

Originally Posted by jaydee

Nope, most of us are pretty happy with our life style over here at the moment, free to go where ever, when ever, no masks.

There are some rumblings because they can't catch up with family from over east, but that's collateral damage.
Although I do feel sorry for people who haven't seen family for 12 months or more, but unfortunately that's the way it is.
Either enjoy our freedoms, or risk the bug and go into lock downs, quarantining, masks etc.

To be honest, our health system is a mess and couldn't cope if there was a flu outbreak let alone Covid, and the government is super scared of it getting into the indigenous communities.

We're nearly at 80%, but the indigenous are only at about 20%, need to be taken by the hand and taken in for a shot.

Originally Posted by slowsnake

We/us residents of WA live normal pre-covid lives, nothing here has changed since our 1st and only lockdown in March-April 2020!
It only affects travellers from arriving from Intrastate and International travellers, by air or sea!
You would not know that there is a covid pandemic happening on our planet, not from WA anyway, it seems we have been missed, it really does not affect our lives here, unless of course we want to leave our safe haven!

Enjoy your Covid free lifestyle while you got it but the virus will eventually come, by then most of you should be vaccinated in preparedness for it.
Then you guys will know what it is really about having it over there.

[Itsme]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

Quite an interesting evening out at middle park beach tonight. Didn't think we were officially out of lock down yet, but there were restaurants serving food and alcohol with patrons dining outside.

Heaps of "cruisers" on Beaconsfield (aka hoon) Pde. Obviously all cashed up during lock down and ready to let go, cops were picking them off one by one, with quite a few pushing the boundaries. Can't say I didn't enjoy listening to the rumbles!

Well that is just more proof people are sick of being locked up.

[oldel]

Originally Posted by GasoLane

Probably all busy manning the machine gun posts on the borders

We never did defeat those emus.

Originally Posted by Trevor 57

There must be some dissenters in W.A. surely, we never hear anything

McGowan is more popular than Putin right now, and just as ruthless when it comes to covid

Originally Posted by Itsme

Well that is just more proof people are sick of being locked up.

And that's the reason why. Hardly been locked up, restrictions ended about May last year, with about 4 short lockdowns or mask periods since.
About 1100 cases total, zero deaths this year. About 9 deaths early on and they were cruise ship victims in the first few months.

[slowsnake]

Originally Posted by Itsme

Enjoy your Covid free lifestyle while you got it but the virus will eventually come, by then most of you should be vaccinated in preparedness for it.
Then you guys will know what it is really about having it over there.

Lucky bugger me!
But I would sooner be in Sydney, my home town, at the moment living in Perth WA is just another coincidence in my long life, get my 2nd Pfizer shot on Friday.

And if you were me and I were you, I would be congratulating you, not be condescending!...as I said..Lucky bugger me....just by coincidence only!

[oldel]

Originally Posted by Itsme

Enjoy your Covid free lifestyle while you got it but the virus will eventually come, by then most of you should be vaccinated in preparedness for it.
Then you guys will know what it is really about having it over there.

Well, there's no point living in isolation like we do if you're never going to maximise it's benefit when there's a pandemic.

Just think, if we listened to the drongos in the past, or listen to them now, we would have thrown away the benefit of isolation and got no extra help when needed either. The Feds, other states and their populations, leaders, Palmer, international right wing leaders, followers, troublemakers, naysayers, economic 'chicken littles' etc need to be told to shut the hell up.

Every day.

Every damned day.

[Itsme]

Originally Posted by slowsnake

Lucky bugger me!
But I would sooner be in Sydney, my home town, at the moment living in Perth WA is just another coincidence in my long life, get my 2nd Pfizer shot on Friday.

And if you were me and I were you, I would be congratulating you, not be condescending!...as I said..Lucky bugger me....just by coincidence only!

Nah just pointing out the inevitable but you are lucky being where you are, no fn picnic being locked down for so long as we are in Melbourne Burbs.

What most people on the forum do not realise "you can only tolerate so much for so long before you explode" think the proof is with our protests and peoples disobediance as of late; even our doughnut man has realised this and now back peddling to open us quickly with the mandated jabs vaccination plan.

Cheers.

[Trevor 57]

Originally Posted by jaydee

Nope, most of us are pretty happy with our life style over here at the moment, free to go where ever, when ever, no masks.

There are some rumblings because they can't catch up with family from over east, but that's collateral damage.
Although I do feel sorry for people who haven't seen family for 12 months or more, but unfortunately that's the way it is.
Either enjoy our freedoms, or risk the bug and go into lock downs, quarantining, masks etc.

To be honest, our health system is a mess and couldn't cope if there was a flu outbreak let alone Covid, and the government is super scared of it getting into the indigenous communities.

We're nearly at 80%, but the indigenous are only at about 20%, need to be taken by the hand and taken in for a shot.

a couple of my kids have been absouletly adamant they are moving to W.A.

and they are pizzed at us coz my wife and I (before we were married) lived in Mosman Park - 'why did you leave' they ask

[slowsnake]

Geez Trev, change that damn avatar will ya, its freakin me out!.lol.