Covid 19 -

[superyob]

Originally Posted by MITCHAY

Ours can write whatever the **** they feel like but they can be sued.

When we read your media we know it is state sponsored you dumb ****s.

That's not true either. They are all in lockstep with the current lunacies afflicting society. They dare not step out of line...

[Franco Cozzo]

Speaking of autism:

Vaccination-sceptic political party wins name change despite heavyweight objectors

A political party opposing compulsory vaccinations and fluoride in water has overcome objections from the nation's highest health offices to win a name change with the Australian Electoral Commission.

The Involuntary Medication Objectors (Vaccination/Fluoride) Party will now be known as the Informed Medical Options Party, a change medical experts warned was an attempt to conceal the party's true agenda and appear more mainstream.

https://amp.theage.com.au/national/v...mpression=true

Sneaky sneaky! It shows you with a little bit of marketing you can go a long way, Like the former 'sex party' in VIC becoming Fiona Patten's 'Reason Party' - quite good policies by the way.

Though I see they merged with the Australian Cyclists Party and im feeling voters remorse.

[Franco Cozzo]

Speaking of COVID-19, has this reached any of Indigenous community? I wonder if they are very susceptible to this compared to the rest of us?

Is there any information about this at all?

In the USA it appears to heavily effect their African American population but I'm not sure if that's because of low socioeconomic group, underlying health issues and their terrible healthcare system.

[PhilT2]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

but I'm not sure if that's because of low socioeconomic group, underlying health issues and their terrible healthcare system.

All of the above plus living in more crowded housing. Campbell suggests it is because of lower vitamin D levels.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GCSXNGc7pfs

[guzzis3]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

Speaking of COVID-19, has this reached any of Indigenous community? I wonder if they are very susceptible to this compared to the rest of us?

Is there any information about this at all?

In the USA it appears to heavily effect their African American population but I'm not sure if that's because of low socioeconomic group, underlying health issues and their terrible healthcare system.

I haven't done a proper analysis but my eyeball average says it's not race specific. If you look at rates my race across the world there are no standouts IMO. Other people have been speculating on this since the start. To clarify:

If you look at middle class populations of, for example, African descent, their infection and death rates mirror other populations of similar economic in that jurisdiction, Same goes for asian, working class etc.

It LOOKS to me (again no extensive analysis) like the biggest risk factor is geography/jurisdiction, population density, cultural factors like socialization and touching. The virus seems to be highly contagious with a specific transmission mechanism, so the big issue is the initial exposure. In some places you are much more likely to be exposed.

Once you are infected then the stated health aspects seem to drive outcomes. Basically some types of people are less likely to develop severe symptoms and need hospitalisation and die. This seems overwhelmingly to be driven by good/bad health.

The over representation of AAs in the USA seems driven by more exposure, hence higher infection rate, and soc/ec factors driving lower health resulting in more severe outcomes.

I haven't worded some of that well, sorry. It probably ain't genetics (eugenics?)...how about that.

I've been pretty frazzled this last week or so but things seem to be calming down. If I can find a comprehensive data set and a little time I'll build a spreadsheet and do some graphs of individual US states and EU countries. It will be useful to quash the media hype about how terribly the USA is doing but also may prove interesting in determining driving factors if we look at the different societies and policies.

I am a little scared though ATM at how well it's tracking 1918, if that continues September and on is going to be a deeply unhappy time. It's like the virus is conning us into complacency getting ready for it's main assault...

[BENT_8]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

Sneaky sneaky! It shows you with a little bit of marketing you can go a long way, Like the former 'sex party' in VIC becoming Fiona Patten's 'Reason Party' - quite good policies by the way.

Though I see they merged with the Australian Cyclists Party and im feeling voters remorse.

So the Sex party merged with the cyclist party...makes sense, an easy transition if they just took the seat off..

[superyob]

Originally Posted by BENT_8

So the Sex party merged with the cyclist party...makes sense, an easy transition if they just took the seat off..

Stop saying words! Oh the images I don't need! Oooooohh I feel faint.

You started this Franco...

[Romulus]

China won't have to pay any compensation, it's called sovereign immunity. The penalty for China will be nations pulling their manufacturing out of China and progressively severing their trade ties with them.

https://www.justsecurity.org/69460/d...r-coronavirus/

[EgoFG]

I think it would be Interesting to compare Pennsylvania and Florida.
Similar Population Density, Similar Population, Florida with a much greater % of 'at risk' people.
Pennsylvania, still Shelter in Place perhaps relaxing next week.
Florida only ever required the high risk to be sheltered, and focused its testing on them - The state was largely free.

[russellw]

Originally Posted by EgoFG

I think it would be Interesting to compare Pennsylvania and Florida.
Similar Population Density, Similar Population, Florida with a much greater % of 'at risk' people.
Pennsylvania, still Shelter in Place perhaps relaxing next week.
Florida only ever required the high risk to be sheltered, and focused its testing on them - The state was largely free.

I can answer that one although the population base is actually quite different at 12.8M (Penn) v 21.9M (Florida).

Florida has ~36,000 cases while Pennsylvania has 52,000 and the latter has had 1,500 more deaths. Despite Florida having more high risk people, the CMR is actually lower than Penn at 3.82% compared to 5.43%.

Because of the disparate populations only the number per 100k figures actually matter. Penn has 405 cases / 100k compared to Florida with 164 and Penn also has 22 deaths per 100k compared to Florida with 6.27.

Originally Posted by guzzis3

How is Sweden's death rate trending ?

It had been trending down as per the earlier graphs but they don't report as much data on weekends so it will be worth a look today.

Originally Posted by Tickford.

Brazil's president said this is "just a little flu" early into the pandemic, and has continued to play down the severity of the virus. He sacked his federal police chief, and his health minister for supporting isolation as a tool to contain the spread of the virus. As a result, the justice and security minister, has also resigned.

How is this "little flue" going in Brazil russelw? TIA.

I'll have a look at that one shortly but I don't think they have been doing very well although it has trended downward the last few days.

[EgoFG]

[QUOTE=russellw;6435940]I can answer that one although the population base is actually quite different at 12.8M (Penn) v 21.9M (Florida).

Florida has ~36,000 cases while Pennsylvania has 52,000 and the latter has had 1,500 more deaths. Despite Florida having more high risk people, the CMR is actually lower than Penn at 3.82% compared to 5.43%.

Because of the disparate populations only the number per 100k figures actually matter. Penn has 405 cases / 100k compared to Florida with 164 and Penn also has 22 deaths per 100k compared to Florida with 6.27.

.../QUOTE]


Thanks


I was wanting to compare the US states with nearest: 1st - Population Density, 2nd Population count......Where one followed almost a Sweden style, whereas to other was typical US lockdown.


Aside form the difference in approach, it should be noted that Florida is noticeably warmer than Penn.


It *may* show the wisdom is looser controls on non-atrisk, but rather focussing effort on atrisk.

[Romulus]

CDC reporting 38,576 COVID-19 deaths in the US as of 4/5/2020

[Charliewool]

Originally Posted by Romulus

CDC reporting 38,576 COVID-19 deaths in the US as of 4/5/2020

image

So why is World meter AND Trump saying 67,000?

[Romulus]

Originally Posted by Charliewool

So why is World meter AND Trump saying 67,000?

Good question. And this data is from a 'legitimate' source, US CDC.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

Have you read the fine print under the graph? Why are presumed Corona deaths being included in official death numbers?

[prydey]

Originally Posted by Charliewool

So why is World meter AND Trump saying 67,000?

I'd say Romulus is trying to say if you die 'with' covid 19, rather than 'from' covid 19 then your death shouldn't be included in the stats.

It's just being pedantic in my view.

[Charliewool]

Originally Posted by prydey

I'd say Romulus is trying to say if you die 'with' covid 19, rather than 'from' covid 19 then your death shouldn't be included in the stats.

It's just being pedantic in my view.

So... Why wouldn’t Trump use the “conveniently LOWER” number???

[cheap]

Originally Posted by Charliewool

So... Why wouldn’t Trump use the “conveniently LOWER” number???

Why, because it would open up yet another Trump Derangement Attack.

Instead, be cautious, quote the bigger number and once the dust has settled then re-adjust.

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by Charliewool

So... Why wouldn’t Trump use the “conveniently LOWER” number???

Classic sales tactics - under promise and over deliver.

Trump - We're expecting 70,000 dead

45,000 people die

Trump - Under my outstanding management of this crisis, and I'm the best manager at managing pandemics, I managed pandemics all the time, we managed to save an extra 25,000 American lives!

Trump Twitter -

25,000 AMERICAN LIVES!

[cheap]

More information on the CoronaSafe application.

Once again, technology announced with fanfare, unrealistic adoption targets, late arrival, and with questionable benefits. Sounds like I’m describing application deployment in Queensland Health

Since the legislation governing the data protection and management are not yet law, what does that mean for the user data currently being collected?

Business owners who ban people from entry unless they have downloaded the government’s coronavirus contact tracing app will face five years in jail and a $63,000 fine under proposed laws. The government has released a draft of its legislative backing to privacy and data protections for the COVIDSafe tracing app.
It proposes to make it illegal for anyone to refuse a person without the app entry to a public place, ban them from an activity or refuse to buy or sell goods and services to them. The legislation would also make it an offence to access the data without proper authorisation and for the data to be stored anywhere outside of Australia. All offences have a maximum penalty of five years in jail, a $63,00 fine or both.

The legislation also says records of the Bluetooth “handshakes” a user’s phone makes with people they come in close contact with must be deleted after 21 days or upon request. And once the health minister and chief medical officer decide the app is no longer necessary on health grounds, all data must be erased from the server and people will be told to delete the app from their phones.

A sunset clause in the legislation says the privacy protections and offences will end 90 days after the minister determines the app is no longer needed. The legislation, which will be put to parliament when it returns next week, backs up rules already laid out in a biosecurity determination. Attorney-general Christian Porter described it as the final step in a “triple lock of privacy protections”.

“The draft bill clarifies the enforcement mechanisms for the penalties that are already in place against misuse of data from the COVIDSafe app,” he said on Monday.

“In addition to the protections provided by the biosecurity determination, this bill puts in place a clear process outlining how the government will satisfy its obligation to delete all COVIDSafe data from the national COVIDSafe data store once the pandemic is over.”

Offences under the new law would be investigated by federal police and people could complain to the Office of the Australian Information Commissioner or their state privacy regulator if they were concerned their data had been misused.
– Katina Curtis, AAP

[superyob]

Originally Posted by prydey

I'd say Romulus is trying to say if you die 'with' covid 19, rather than 'from' covid 19 then your death shouldn't be included in the stats.

It's just being pedantic in my view.

How does one tell the difference? For example, if a person has underlying conditions, exacerbated by an infection of corona, what killed them? As opposed to someone who died from just the virus...

[Citroënbender]

Originally Posted by superyob

How does one tell the difference? For example, if a person has underlying conditions, exacerbated by an infection of corona, what killed them? As opposed to someone who died from just the virus...

To take a non-CV example, Richard Wherrett was HIV positive for decades, but died of liver failure. He didn’t die of HIV or a directly related illness in that sense, although it’s possible the years of retroviral drugs damaged or compromised his liver. So although he tested positive to a pandemic virus, it was not the cause of his demise...

[russellw]

Australia had 27 new cases yesterday (24 in my data); 22 of those in Victoria and 1 in the declared 'free' ACT. With no deaths, the CMR drops to 1.392% while active cases are down to 12.8%. This is also the 4th consecutive day that the case numbers have actually increased so it is not the time for complacency.

NZ had no new cases and no deaths so the CMR is unchanged while active cases are down to 13.7%.

The UK was under 4k new cases and under 300 deaths so the CMR improves to 15.077% but they also reworked all the active case numbers since March 1st as a result of which the percentage is now at 82.4%.

The USA was under 30k new cases again with under 1,400 deaths so the CMR improved to 5.743% and active cases are down to 77.6%.

[CoupeKing]

This:
https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0556179/



Episode from 2003:

[Charliewool]

Wouldn’t you think the feckin President would be quoting the lower “true” number rather than virtually doubling it?? Come on!

[Charliewool]

I mainly follow the 2 Countries that personally concern me...
World meter has 95 dead for Australia...
And 6 dead, where I am in Costa Rica...
Both governments, both countries medias, both countries health Depts are also stating EXACTLY the same number!.....
The same source has 69,000 for USA, and you say it’s virtually HALF???
Get ya hand off it mate!... Sick to death of some of the tripe this thread has attracted!

[Romulus]

Originally Posted by Charliewool

I mainly follow the 2 Countries that personally concern me...
World meter has 95 dead for Australia...
And 6 dead, where I am in Costa Rica...
Both governments, both countries medias, both countries health Depts are also stating EXACTLY the same number!.....
The same source has 69,000 for USA, and you say it’s virtually HALF???
Get ya hand off it mate!... Sick to death of some of the tripe this thread has attracted!

I don't say it's virtually HALF, the data I've sourced comes direct from CDC who are reporting the numbers. I'm not interested in following world meter and other predictions of the number of deaths, including 'presumed' number of deaths.

[russellw]

Sweden is continuing to trend downward for new cases but their mortality rate remains above 33 per 100k of total population - well above Finland (4.1) and Norway (3.9) but not as bad as Italy (47.7) or Belgium (66.6). Their case rate of 220.97/100k of total population is well below the USA (358), Italy (348) and Spain (528) but above the neighbouring Finland (95) and Norway (144).

[Romulus]

Originally Posted by russellw

Sweden is continuing to trend downward for new cases but their mortality rate remains above 33 per 100k of total population - well above Finland (4.1) and Norway (3.9) but not as bad as Italy (47.7) or Belgium (66.6). Their case rate of 220.97/100k of total population is well below the USA (358), Italy (348) and Spain (528) but above the neighbouring Finland (95) and Norway (144).

Where is your data source for the US numbers?

[Yellow_Festiva]

Originally Posted by russellw

Sweden is continuing to trend downward for new cases but their mortality rate remains above 33 per 100k of total population - well above Finland (4.1) and Norway (3.9) but not as bad as Italy (47.7) or Belgium (66.6). Their case rate of 220.97/100k of total population is well below the USA (358), Italy (348) and Spain (528) but above the neighbouring Finland (95) and Norway (144).

Did I read recently that Sweden was a country that didn't impose any social distancing measures and the country had a 'business as usual' approach the entire time?

[guzzis3]

Originally Posted by Yellow_Festiva

Did I read recently that Sweden was a country that didn't impose any social distancing measures and the country had a 'business as usual' approach the entire time?

Sigh, read back, it's been covered several times. Limited lockdown aimed at the vulnerable, everyone else carry on as usual. Approach based on psychology more so than epidemiology.