VFacts Jan 2012 Falcon 950 sales!!!!!!!!!

[Polyal]

Look at the global economy right now, and things wont be getting better for the US and EU anytime soon. SO in that time a decision needs to be made on the Falcon.

How is it logical to build a car here and ship it to the US (that will never happen) or Asia? Its not that I wouldnt like it to happen but it just doesnt make sense when you have cheaper manufacturing facilities in Asia.

Australia will never be a large automotive export country. We are all about R&D and maybe making some cars for our own consumption. This issue at the moment is that we are doing it all on our own. Yes Holden/GM used their platform more widely but look where that has them right now.

So if we want our cake and to eat a little aswell then we have to plug into something global, because our country cannot continue the "Billion dollar babies" like a VE or other major update on the volumes we sell here. If you share a platform and engines, then localise styling and trim etc you can continue manufacturing (although not as much as you where doing before but better than nothing) and keep some R&D.

FoA have been moving this way for a while, the do R&D for Asia Pacific because thats there strength. GWRD makes sense and will lower the bloodshed when the time comes. Import a CKD and it will be far worse.

I cant see a medium RWD car making any difference, people will just look at the mondeo and get that as it would be cheaper and have the same content.

[Joe5619]

Originally Posted by johnydep

Freight is a small cost, when the numbers being freighted is high enough. That's why 'Economies Of Scale' is so important -

Let me start by saying, I’m a cost accountant working for major worldwide company that 100% imports to Australia. Costing of products that require freight to this country is my job (cost for freight going the other way, surely must be similar?). Freight (and all the other attached costs) is NOT a small cost, this notion is very wrong. There is also the 6 weeks you lose for having a product you can't sell sitting on the water, drawing down working capital & increasing inventory days on hand.

Also, fright is charged by cubic’s shipped & has nothing to do with 'economies of Scale'..


Anyway, lets not go on about it??

[johnydep]

Originally Posted by Polyal

Look at the global economy right now, and things wont be getting better for the US and EU anytime soon. ............

Long term vision... must be longer than 10 years.

During and up to the next 20, 30, 40 years -

What is the economic forecast?
Which countries will be major economic forces of the world?
What energy sources will we be using?
What will be the % of disposable income?
Etc.

Governments and big business do not make decisions about tomorrows spending on yesterday's forecasts.

It's a hard science, and only the smartest will get it totally right, but the clever ones will allow for chance and change.

As I've said, it's all been done before. Go look through the history books, don't let little things like fashion changes cloud your view. The world has been through tough times before, and it will go through them again once this ones over.

Imagine if Countries gave up on ideas during the Great Depression. Governments do more than just build roads and implement laws, they plan for our future, they work with industry. Damn, I hope we have people with better vision and ideas in charge at the moment.

http://australia.gov.au/about-austra...eat-depression

[mik]

Originally Posted by mik

i get sick of people telling us we should have more small cars, we are bloody drowning in them, they are coming in by bulk ship load
some of us like the secure feeling of having some space between our shoulder and the door in our big car
some of us like the secure feeling of knowing there`s more than 2 inches between this side of the door and the other in our big car Aussie car
some of us like the feeling of solidarity of a long wheel base heavier car you just don`t get with a small/er car
some of us like to be able to put the family in the car + luggage with boat or van in tow and do an interstater in an effortless fashion
some of us like the fact we don`t need a bulk suv to do these things
some of us like the fact we can order our big Aussie car with BBQ gas and have running costs cheaper than many imports,? any imports do this?
the only issue i see with big Aussie cars is the initial cost......no fault of the car maker,the way i see it, it`s is the fault of the those that make the policy`s that allow the cost of business and living to sky rocket, not to mention the flood of cheap imports.

one i forgot

some of us like not paying $1200 for a suspension part on our import

[johnydep]

Originally Posted by Joe5619

Let me start by saying, I’m a cost accountant working for major worldwide company that 100% imports to Australia. Costing of products that require freight to this country is my job (cost for freight going the other way, surely must be similar?). Freight (and all the other attached costs) is NOT a small cost, this notion is very wrong. There is also the 6 weeks you lose for having a product you can't sell sitting on the water, drawing down working capital & increasing inventory days on hand.

Also, fright is charged by cubic’s shipped & has nothing to do with 'economies of Scale'..


Anyway, lets not go on about it??

What is the total percentage of the inbound freight cost of your goods?

[Joe5619]

Originally Posted by johnydep

During and up to the next 20, 30, 40 years -
[/url]

It sounds nice, but right or wrong companies just dont look that far out.. If you can't get the next 10 right, you might not be in business for the following 20, 30, 40 years.

[Joe5619]

Originally Posted by johnydep

What is the total percentage of the inbound freight cost of your goods?

10-12% (at cost value).

[Brazen]

Originally Posted by Joe5619

10-12% (at cost value).

Add the 5 to 10% vehicle tariff, and that wages only comprise about 8% of a vehicles cost and you can see it still could be viable to build cars here. Really scale seems to be the real determinate.

Add the non-cost factors like fleets who only buy Australian, and the statistic that 40% of Cruze buyers had the Australian made factor as one of their defining factors in purchase and there are other reasons to make cars here.

Then there are market factors, being able to develop vehicles and variants suitable for local markers, look at the crappy colour and powertrain combinations on something like the Focus which are more suited to Eastern Europe compared to the local Cruze which is bang on buyer tastes.

[Polyal]

Originally Posted by johnydep

Long term vision... must be longer than 10 years.

During and up to the next 20, 30, 40 years -

What is the economic forecast?
Which countries will be major economic forces of the world?
What energy sources will we be using?
What will be the % of disposable income?
Etc.

Governments and big business do not make decisions about tomorrows spending on yesterday's forecasts.

It's a hard science, and only the smartest will get it totally right, but the clever ones will allow for chance and change.

As I've said, it's all been done before. Go look through the history books, don't let little things like fashion changes cloud your view. The world has been through tough times before, and it will go through them again once this ones over.

Imagine if Countries gave up on ideas during the Great Depression. Governments do more than just build roads and implement laws, they plan for our future, they work with industry. Damn, I hope we have people with better vision and ideas in charge at the moment.

http://australia.gov.au/about-austra...eat-depression

So your getting up in arms over manufacturing here but wont discuss the reason why its actually not?

NO company has any solid plans any longer than 10 years out (generally), business is just not like that these days (even in good times). Im in a mining company at the moment and their mines are planned for 10-20 years, but you can bet once it becomes unfavorable to get the raw material out (china slows, price drops etc) then they will pack up shop and wait until it returns.,

Being global means you shift your work around the world to your financial benefit..globalization has been happening for a while.

[johnydep]

Originally Posted by Polyal

So your getting up in arms over manufacturing here but wont discuss the reason why its actually not?

NO company has any solid plans any longer than 10 years out (generally), business is just not like that these days (even in good times). Im in a mining company at the moment and their mines are planned for 10-20 years, but you can bet once it becomes unfavorable to get the raw material out (china slows, price drops etc) then they will pack up shop and wait until it returns.,

Being global means you shift your work around the world to your financial benefit..globalization has been happening for a while.

I'm sorry, but you've totally lost me. What does your first paragraph mean, what is the question?

Ford spent the $500 million dollars with a 10 year plan in Thailand? Is that what you're saying.

Your in a mining company? And your telling me they've planned for 10 - 20 years, yet prior to that statement you said "NO company has any solid plans any longer than 10 years"

Globalisation is than just shifting work around to your financial benefit.

So far all I've read in these pages are; the Australian dollar is too high, overseas labour costs are much lower than ours, distance is a major factor, those three things mean we will never export.
Again I say - tell that to the German's and the Japanese of the 1980's and 1990's, tell that to the North American's of the 1950's and 1960's.

There's always a solution to a problem, it's just a matter of having the right people in place to create and implement.

Business does not build $500 million factories without discussion and assurances from Governments. Governments do not want to see the loss of tens of thousands of jobs due to a factory relocation to another country. So it's no secret that Governments and business leaders have and do meet and discuss plans, ideas and business.

This brings me back to a couple of things I mentioned over and over again, both on this thread on another; people don't mind Governments handing out $$$ to assist and help nation building business, however, people want value for money, they want to know what the returns are, they want to see growth in their country. With the automotive manufacturers, that means building and selling cars successfully. Doing that these days means selling to overseas markets.

Can we do it? You say no. Fair enough.
So do we continue to pump in dollars to three dead end companies, if they have no future growth potential?

Originally Posted by johnydep

They've been telling us that for 30 years.

If Ford management and our Governments looked at the problem with an eye for the long term, rather than the election and employment cycle, we'd have factories in place large enough to produce and export at levels to make us self sufficient.

Instead they have let their chances by-pass us and go to Thailand and Korea.

[johnydep]

Originally Posted by Joe5619

10-12% (at cost value).

Wow, what are you importing? Explosives?

Last time I looked, industry standards was 2 - 5% for general goods.

[Joe5619]

Originally Posted by johnydep

Wow, what are you importing? Explosives?

Last time I looked, industry standards was 2 - 5% for general goods.

Without telling you what we sell (as that would give too much away), but you'll find our products on retail shelfs in Big W, Target, Kmart & many more other major outlets. Our products mainly come from Hong Kong, are not dangerous in any way, are nicely shaped to fit nicely in cartons & shipping containers (i.e. no wasted spaces of air). This is what it costs. I'm not sure where your industry standards come from, but freight is not cheap!!

With fuel going up & up & up, so does freight costs. Where will shipping cost be in 20-30-40 years time? Major impacts on cost that no-one simply has an answer for that far in advance, which could very well make or break exports. It is not easy stuff that is for sure..

[Polyal]

OMG...ok last post.

I did mention that no one "generally" has a 10-20 year plan. And I did say that as soon as the coal price drops to a point where they are not returning a decent investment they will walk away. So you can have a plan but things change and you move on.

Look at Ford and the Falcon. FoA cant make a decent decision because Ford NA dont know what to do..hence the extension until 2016. So how do you expect a gov to handle that (not that they should...its Fords business and Govco cant do anything right anyway). Gov and business cant plan 30-40 years ahead...its impossible the market is to dynamic.

[johnydep]

Originally Posted by Polyal

....

Look at Ford and the Falcon. FoA cant make a decent decision because Ford NA dont know what to do..hence the extension until 2016. So how do you expect a gov to handle that (not that they should...its Fords business and Govco cant do anything right anyway). Gov and business cant plan 30-40 years ahead...its impossible the market is to dynamic.

By working on our tax system,
by bringing down the cost of living through less red tape and administration,
by making our workforce competitive through streamlined tax system and reducing the costs of superannuation, health care, work cover insurance
by using our advantage of cheap energy and resources
by improving infrastructure such as road, rail and sea ports
by showing big business that taxes and regulations are long term prospects
by not adding to business workload with difficult and hard to implement regulation and requirements.
Etc.

This goes for all Australian's, workers, contractors, small and large business. Because the chain is long.

That is how Governments handle negotiations and deals with big business, they offer the lowest base cost possible. Done by the way they run the country, the way they add costs to a country.

As I said before; Governments do more than just build roads and make laws.

[Polyal]

In theory I agree with you, but from what I see it just doesnt happen, and certainly not in a quick time frame to keep up with industry.

(yes I know I said last post)

[prydey]

Originally Posted by Brazen

I still cannot fathom Ford not putting a V8 in the mainstream sedan and ute range when it is so popular with profitable private buyers. 1 in 4 Commodore sales!

Best V8 ever and they dont offer it in variants comparable to Commodore e.g. XR8 XR8 ute and G8E.

Bringing out the best LPG system ever but dropping the wagon which was ideal for EcoLPI, coupled with the massive shift away from sedans.

Profitable prviate buyers being flocking to small cars for years and is now the biggest segment so they reverse decision to build local Focus and potentially Kuga.


three strikes....

dear me

[pottery beige]

Originally Posted by Joe5619

Without telling you what we sell (as that would give too much away), but you'll find our products on retail shelfs in Big W, Target, Kmart & many more other major outlets. Our products mainly come from Hong Kong, are not dangerous in any way, are nicely shaped to fit nicely in cartons & shipping containers (i.e. no wasted spaces of air). This is what it costs. I'm not sure where your industry standards come from, but freight is not cheap!!

With fuel going up & up & up, so does freight costs. Where will shipping cost be in 20-30-40 years time? Major impacts on cost that no-one simply has an answer for that far in advance, which could very well make or break exports. It is not easy stuff that is for sure..

toasters..???..

[Nikked]

Does the profit (if there is) from projects like the T6 help the development of other local projects?

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by Nikked

Does the profit (if there is) from projects like the T6 help the development of other local projects?

In 2010, Ford spent another $300 million on R & D infrastructure....

[russellw]

The first set of graphical results have been posted now.

Cheers
Russ

[Dr Smith]

Originally Posted by johnydep

Agreed.

I'd like to see the info on how the decisions were made.

Ford knew that Holden were working on plans to get the rights to build the Cruze in Australia, Ford Oz started the bidding on the rights to build the Focus here; what happened.

The Territory is another strike; in 2004 Ford had the right set up in the Terri, they were selling them faster than they could build them. Sales started in South Africa, Thailand and I think a couple of other countries. Sadly, Ford did not push the boundaries, and relied on the very good Aussie sales only.

With our history of building great cars, I think Ford and Holden can still get themselves out of the doldrums.

What does the market want? Local and OS.
Can they build two or three different models? Holden - the Commy and the Cruze. Ford - the Falcon and the Terri, and maybe a smaller model.

If they can assure us that they'll be here for the long haul producing vehicles, then I'm all for the Government offering assistance. If they can't, then they can't have any money from the tax payers.

I believe that the business case for Focus was partly scuttled due to the belief that the model mix would favour the lower spec models. As we have seen more recently even within Ford the mix has moved more to upper spec models. Possibly if the business case were looked at today, knowing the sales record of todays Focus then maybe the plan may have continued. Ford has spent an enormous amount in Thailand and China so once again Ford Oz wasn't the favoured region by it's parent. Lets not forget that without Government money there would be no local Cruze at all. It will be interesting to see how much money Holden gets, I'll bet that it will be far more then Ford's approx $50mill from Feds and Vic.

As fore Terry, well we all know that Gorman wasn't interested in a diesel version and so a I6T was released. That one, I feel was a no-brainer and maybe the influence of coming from a country with very few diesel passenger cars was the problem.

[Spammy]

Just to put a Ford global view to the Falcon sales: 931 Falcons for Dec compares with the 584,917 F Series Trucks Ford sold in 2011 which is an average of 1600 per day !!

[Nikked]

I can't help but think all the negatibe air about the Falcon isn't helping...

[Bossxr8]

Originally Posted by Spammy

Just to put a Ford global view to the Falcon sales: 931 Falcons for Dec compares with the 584,917 F Series Trucks Ford sold in 2011 which is an average of 1600 per day !!

Yet Ford have vehicles that only sell in the US, and maybe Canada, that sell in tiny numbers too. The Ford Flex only sold about 1500 or so in the US in January, not much more than the Falcon yet in a market 20 times bigger.

Mustang and Taurus don't sell in that high numbers either, Mustang is about 4 or 5000, and Taurus was around 3000 I think from memory. So it's not like all the Fords made in the US sell like hotcakes like the F series do.

[Spammy]

According to Wiki, Ford thought they would sell 100,000 per year - they sold 28,000 last year....so I agree not a great outcome.

Gotta say - it has unusual porportions in the photos I have seen.

[johnydep]

Originally Posted by russellw

The first set of graphical results have been posted now.

Cheers
Russ

Great resource, quite an eye opener.

[FPV GTHO]

Originally Posted by Bossxr8

Yet Ford have vehicles that only sell in the US, and maybe Canada, that sell in tiny numbers too. The Ford Flex only sold about 1500 or so in the US in January, not much more than the Falcon yet in a market 20 times bigger.

Mustang and Taurus don't sell in that high numbers either, Mustang is about 4 or 5000, and Taurus was around 3000 I think from memory. So it's not like all the Fords made in the US sell like hotcakes like the F series do.

But thats just more support to getting onto a global platform. Flex, Taurus and Explorer are all the same underneath.

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by Bossxr8

Yet Ford have vehicles that only sell in the US, and maybe Canada, that sell in tiny numbers too. The Ford Flex only sold about 1500 or so in the US in January, not much more than the Falcon yet in a market 20 times bigger.

Mustang and Taurus don't sell in that high numbers either, Mustang is about 4 or 5000, and Taurus was around 3000 I think from memory. So it's not like all the Fords made in the US sell like hotcakes like the F series do.

Careful Boss the figures you are quoting are for January which is like the dead of winter in the US,
better to look at spring-summer-autunm figures..when buyers come back to the market.

Flex is very popular in California but not so much elsewhere where people prefer Explorer or Expedition.
Flex is built on D3 at Oakville alongside Edge (CD3S) and value add to production.

[johnydep]

Originally Posted by Dr Smith

I believe that the business case for Focus was partly scuttled due to the belief that the model mix would favour the lower spec models. As we have seen more recently even within Ford the mix has moved more to upper spec models. Possibly if the business case were looked at today, knowing the sales record of todays Focus then maybe the plan may have continued. Ford has spent an enormous amount in Thailand and China so once again Ford Oz wasn't the favoured region by it's parent. Lets not forget that without Government money there would be no local Cruze at all. It will be interesting to see how much money Holden gets, I'll bet that it will be far more then Ford's approx $50mill from Feds and Vic.

As fore Terry, well we all know that Gorman wasn't interested in a diesel version and so a I6T was released. That one, I feel was a no-brainer and maybe the influence of coming from a country with very few diesel passenger cars was the problem.

They seem to have a history of making the wrong decisions. Looking through Russell's stats, Ford are running out of time along with sales. Building the Focus alongside the Falcon would have been a life line.
If I was heading an enquiry I'd be asking questions to find the weakest link; why are they building vehicles that can't sell, how are decisions made, who's making the decisions, who's rubber stamping them, how is market research conducted? Etc

The Focus decision looks to be another missed opportunity, to go alongside the Territory .

[Polyal]

Life line? Focus? How many do they sell here and what would be the cost of setting up for a car thats already built in Thailand?

For some reason I cant imagine the fellas in America sitting there thinking that was a profitable idea.