Covid 19 -

[russellw]

Originally Posted by Romulus

What you're picking up is the number of actual cases reported which require intervention. Are we picking up asymptomatic carriers, those who don't know they've got cv19 or those that haven't bothered to test for it? This goes back to the 95% of people who don't require intervention.

Do you have any data on Denmark's approach? This would be interesting to see as they're dealing with this virus in a completely different manner to most countries.

Is it mandatory or legislated you must present to a health agency or testing agency if you have a cold or flu like symptoms?

As I've already stated, we have no means of determining with any degree of statistical accuracy what the volume of asymptomatic cases actually is and the figures quoted earlier are based on a very small sample size and as such they are of no real use.

Likewise your figure of 95% not requiring intervention is plucked from where exactly? Just because you keep repeating it, doesn't make it correct and the Australian data I provided above shows that 9% of detected cases do require intervention here.

It's actually irrelevant what percentage of the population is running round asymptomatic given that (1) we already know that having had it once doesn't create immunity; (2) we've still only tested 3% of the population and (3) we have solid evidence that even a single person (asymptomatic or not) is capable of creating a cluster of new cases.

On that basis it would be reasonable to extrapolate that we are identifying a reasonable percentage of the actual cases or there would be more cluster outbreaks from infected people.

I'm not sure why you picked Denmark as 'different'. Denmark has largely followed a similar model to us and was one of the first to initiate lockdowns and legal sanctions for non-compliance and as such their case rate is better than other European countries at 155 per 100k compared to some similarly sized countries like Belgium (413) and Ireland (410) but not as well as Finland (88.5) or Australia (26.45).

They have an excellent (and free) health system which is no doubt helping keep their mortality rate well below other countries in Europe at 7.65 / 100k - Belgium is 64.7, Spain 51.9, Italy 45.7 and the Netherlands 27.5 but it's still way ahead of Australia at 0.35.

As they are about to start easing restrictions it will be a good case study to see if they get a spike in new cases above the current level of ~120-150 / day.

[zipping]

Originally Posted by russellw

As I've already stated, we have no means of determining with any degree of statistical accuracy what the volume of asymptomatic cases actually is and the figures quoted earlier are based on a very small sample size and as such they are of no real use.

While the study I linked to is too small to be of value in and of itself, there have been another 5 similar studies showing similar results including one done in the prison system in four states of the US and 1 in Italy. Another was in California.

[zipping]

Originally Posted by russellw

It's actually irrelevant what percentage of the population is running round asymptomatic given that (1) we already know that having had it once doesn't create immunity; (2) we've still only tested 3% of the population and (3) we have solid evidence that even a single person (asymptomatic or not) is capable of creating a cluster of new cases.

I don't think this is right Russ, sparsity of direct evidence of asymptomatic carriers makes interpretation of the epidemiological record difficult

[Romulus]

Originally Posted by russellw

I'm not sure why you picked Denmark as 'different'. Denmark has largely followed a similar model to us and was one of the first to initiate lockdowns and legal sanctions for non-compliance and as such their case rate is better than other European countries at 155 per 100k compared to some similarly sized countries like Belgium (413) and Ireland (410) but not as well as Finland (88.5) or Australia (26.45).

Apologies. I meant Sweden. They're using the herd immunity approach in combination with social distancing where appropriate. While they do accept they have higher infection rate and death rate, should their herd immunity approach continue they will likely have the lowest rate of reinfection. The World Health Agency advises against this approach, and points to the cases in South Korea where 222 previous patients have tested positive to CV19.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/...072044548.html

https://www.foxnews.com/world/who-sw...-for-the-world

[FPV8U]

Originally Posted by russellw

As I've already stated, we have no means of determining with any degree of statistical accuracy what the volume of asymptomatic cases actually is and the figures quoted earlier are based on a very small sample size and as such they are of no real use.

Likewise your figure of 95% not requiring intervention is plucked from where exactly? Just because you keep repeating it, doesn't make it correct and the Australian data I provided above shows that 9% of detected cases do require intervention here.

It's actually irrelevant what percentage of the population is running round asymptomatic given that (1) we already know that having had it once doesn't create immunity; (2) we've still only tested 3% of the population and (3) we have solid evidence that even a single person (asymptomatic or not) is capable of creating a cluster of new cases.

On that basis it would be reasonable to extrapolate that we are identifying a reasonable percentage of the actual cases or there would be more cluster outbreaks from infected people.

I'm not sure why you picked Denmark as 'different'. Denmark has largely followed a similar model to us and was one of the first to initiate lockdowns and legal sanctions for non-compliance and as such their case rate is better than other European countries at 155 per 100k compared to some similarly sized countries like Belgium (413) and Ireland (410) but not as well as Finland (88.5) or Australia (26.45).

They have an excellent (and free) health system which is no doubt helping keep their mortality rate well below other countries in Europe at 7.65 / 100k - Belgium is 64.7, Spain 51.9, Italy 45.7 and the Netherlands 27.5 but it's still way ahead of Australia at 0.35.

As they are about to start easing restrictions it will be a good case study to see if they get a spike in new cases above the current level of ~120-150 / day.

Is it official that having antibodies creates no immunity?

[Romulus]

Originally Posted by FPV8U

Is it official that having antibodies creates no immunity?

It's the opposite, apparently.

https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/vac-gen/immunity-types.htm

[Citroënbender]

One detail I learned from my mate in our convo today, is that regular (ie, non-pauper) funerals in New York state are backed right up - even for cremations. So his late father is in the freezer for probably a month.

[PhilT2]

Originally Posted by Citroënbender

One detail I learned from my mate in our convo today, is that regular (ie, non-pauper) funerals in New York state are backed right up - even for cremations. So his late father is in the freezer for probably a month.

At least they've got a freezer. This funeral home used a U Haul and some ice; but the ice melted. After a few days....
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news...ice-u-n1195901

[Citroënbender]

I read about that; doubly sad for the families.

Wondering about the fallout in days to come, of the Rabbinical send-off also in NY. Apparently people were instructed by their neighbourhood coordinators to wear masks and keep six feet from each other but chose to disregard these urgings.

[russellw]

Originally Posted by FPV8U

Is it official that having antibodies creates no immunity?

Originally Posted by Romulus

It's the opposite, apparently.

https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/vac-gen/immunity-types.htm

The WHO stated a few days ago:

"There is currently no evidence that people who have recovered from Covid-19 and have antibodies are protected from a second infection,"

The current consensus view is that more research is going to be required before a definitive answer is available and that may not even apply to everyone when it is established or may not be 'permanent'.

Most of these viruses do provide a measure of immunity once you've had it but Influenza is an example of one that has both sufficient variations and a relatively short term to the immunity provided by antibodies.

It's one of the reasons why the triple antigen flu shot is provided annually.

[Romulus]

Originally Posted by russellw

The WHO stated a few days ago:

"There is currently no evidence that people who have recovered from Covid-19 and have antibodies are protected from a second infection,"

The current consensus view is that more research is going to be required before a definitive answer is available and that may not even apply to everyone when it is established or may not be 'permanent'.

Most of these viruses do provide a measure of immunity once you've had it but Influenza is an example of one that has both sufficient variations and a relatively short term to the immunity provided by antibodies.

It's one of the reasons why the triple antigen flu shot is provided annually.

One of the reasons a triple antigen flu shot is provided is because the flu shot has one of the lowest efficacy rates of all vaccines. the 'scientists' are basically guessing which flu strain may be prevalent in the upcoming season. Efficacy rates are below 50%.

As per the information from CDC's website https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/vac-gen/immunity-types.htm

Immunity to a disease is achieved through the presence of antibodies to that disease in a person’s system. Antibodies are proteins produced by the body to neutralize or destroy toxins or disease-carrying organisms. Antibodies are disease-specific. For example, measles antibody will protect a person who is exposed to measles disease, but will have no effect if he or she is exposed to mumps.

There are two types of immunity: active and passive.

Active Immunity

Active immunity results when exposure to a disease organism triggers the immune system to produce antibodies to that disease. Exposure to the disease organism can occur through infection with the actual disease (resulting in natural immunity), or introduction of a killed or weakened form of the disease organism through vaccination (vaccine-induced immunity). Either way, if an immune person comes into contact with that disease in the future, their immune system will recognize it and immediately produce the antibodies needed to fight it.

Active immunity is long-lasting, and sometimes life-long.

Passive Immunity

Passive immunity is provided when a person is given antibodies to a disease rather than producing them through his or her own immune system.

A newborn baby acquires passive immunity from its mother through the placenta. A person can also get passive immunity through antibody-containing blood products such as immune globulin, which may be given when immediate protection from a specific disease is needed. This is the major advantage to passive immunity; protection is immediate, whereas active immunity takes time (usually several weeks) to develop.

However, passive immunity lasts only for a few weeks or months. Only active immunity is long-lasting.


Is the World Health Organisation arguing a position contrary to that of the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention?

[PhilT2]

Originally Posted by Romulus

Is the World Health Organisation arguing a position contrary to that of the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention?

No...

[guzzis3]

Originally Posted by russellw

It's actually irrelevant what percentage of the population is running round asymptomatic given that (1) we already know that having had it once doesn't create immunity;

Nitpicking, but I'm not sure that we know that. What I've read from "credible" sources is that we don't know if you get post infection immunity, or if you do how long it lasts. I have seen many statements saying don't rely on PI immunity, which is probably sensible advice.

[Cav]

Bewdy

From today we are able to travel up to 50kms from home.

I'd better get protected from those covid laden virus carriers that I am sure are everywhere here in Central Qld.

To be safe I'll be wearing my gloves and mask, you can't be too careful

[CoupeKing]

Originally Posted by Cav

Bewdy

From today we are able to travel up to 50kms from home.

I'd better get protected from those covid laden virus carriers that I am sure are everywhere here in Central Qld.

To be safe I'll be wearing my gloves and mask, you can't be too careful

image

Now that pic changes things. All the pictures I've seen of you and your dog together I thought it was a dachshund, but it's actually a great dane.

[Cav]

Originally Posted by CoupeKing

Now that pic changes things. All the pictures I've seen of you and your dog together I thought it was a dachshund, but it's actually a great dane.

If you are talking about my dick you'd be right.

[hayseed]

Originally Posted by Cav

If you are talking about my dick you'd be right.

More like a Pekingese.

[guzzis3]

Originally Posted by CoupeKing

Now that pic changes things. All the pictures I've seen of you and your dog together I thought it was a dachshund, but it's actually a great dane.

What confuses me is why the great dane is wearing blue gloves on it's ears...

[Citroënbender]

Today I popped into the workshop I sometimes haunt; had to pink slip Povo Ute.

It was dead as a doornail, a situation significantly due to the NSW restrictions. They weren’t even bothering to put all the shop lights on. AIS spot audits are apparently being conducted by phone at the present. My mate commented the potential for mischief in this change (eg calling another inspection station to prank them).