No one wants EV's now?

[simon varley]

The costs they mention don't make any kind of sense. We already have most of the technology in the cars that AVs will need and the development work is really only about linking it all together and making the brain work correctly.

[EFFalcon]

so much desire to be crammed into the smallest possible space.

jammed on a flight, autonomous cars quickly become 'mini busses' when they realise they can optimise people moving to/from the same area. busses, trains, apartments, units, city spaces.

everything is about cramming people close together, and yet when ever possible we want privacy/out own space!

[XByoot]

Yep, and then people build Mc Mansions with whopping great walls around them, all house and no yard space for privacy! Great for the social environment and interaction hey. I guess we can all go to the coffee shop and drink coffee separately instead...They call it progress aparently.

[whynot]

Originally Posted by Maka

Hi all, here's a interesting link about how unwanted EV's could potentially cost manufacturers billions -

cheers, Maka

There is a lot to unpack in this thread.

The comments made about the “false” predictions in 2001 are somewhat unfair. Recall that the movie was shown to the Apollo 8 astronauts before they even flew to the moon. The movie (and Arthur C Clark) got a lot of future predictions right. For example, Samsung tried to used 2001 in their copyright court case with Apple to prove that the concept of an electronic tablet was prior art. The reason why there are no moon bases today is that the American government, bogged down in an expensive war in Vietnam, lost interest in the space race. Given the surprising progress that Space-X has made with reusable rockets, humans may be back at the moon sooner than we think.

I leased an Outlander PHEV between 2014 and 2017. As my trade background is an electrician, I spent a lot of time examining the technology. I was pleasantly surprised how much progress has been made with EV and PHEV technology. In my mind, nearly all of the pieces are in place to facilitate rapid adoption of EV/PHEV. The one notable exception is the battery itself. Battery technology - in terms of weight, AH capacity, and price - are not quite there yet.

If we use the rapid adoption of solar PV as a proxy of consumer behaviours, then the majority consumers are seeking a cost payback time of five years or under. You can see this behaviour in action with solar PV systems. Where customers spend $5K on a system and save around $1K per year in electricity costs.

When I was driving the outlander PHEV, I was saving around $500 per year in “fuel costs”. That was based on doing around 12,000km per year, and calculating the theoretical cost of petrol, minus the cost of electricity to recharge.

If we use the five year payback rule, then the assumption is that if the cost of an EV/PHEV falls to a price premium of $2500 over petrol, then we will see a rapid adoption of this technology. Now, we are not there yet. The present price premium of PHEV is closer to $9K.

At the time, I worked for the local electricity utility. So, with the help of my engineering colleagues, we conducted some detailed studies on the Outlander PHEV (hooked it up to a dedicated meter that measured in one minute intervals and all four quadrants). It was also the first electric vehicle in Australia to be hooked up the grid’s demand management system.

The vehicle itself is grid friendly. Its charger soft starts. We regularly turned it off between 16:30 and 19:30 (over the summer evening peak), and it didn’t complain. Yes, a bigger battery will require a larger charger. For most homes, the larger current draw will not be an issue. (Most Queensland homes built since the 1970’s have 63A primary fuse and 16mm mains. Even charging at 10kW should be doable.)

The key with EV & PHEV is how quickly battery technology will progress. Once it reaches tipping point, the change will be rapid.

As for autonomous technology …

I think the authors of the AlixPartners have missed the point. What has not been predicted is how autonomous vehicles have come about from technology convergence of many disparate subsystems. For example, early ABS systems on vehicles (Mercedes-Benz 1978 S-Class) were very expensive, now ABS is available on all new vehicles. By 1995, this morphed into Electronic Stability Control (also Mercedes-Benz S-Class). The key point is that ESC now provides an easy way for an electronic black box to trigger the brakes, independently per wheel if required. Ditto, electric power steering. Introduced principally as a way to cut fuel consumption, can also be controlled by an electronic black box. Engine management systems have been fly be wire for a long time. So, we can now accelerate, corner, brake a vehicle; and do funky stuff if the vehicle becomes unsettled. Ditto, front and rear parking sensors. Introduced to aid in parking, they now provide cheap collision avoidance at speed. Fixed lasers and TV cameras, which autonomous black boxes can used, are rapidly being adopted on mid-priced vehicles as well.

The other bit of technology for autonomous vehicles has been good progress in computation neural logic, which has ridden on the back of Graphic Processor Units (GPS). No, not the CPU in your computer, the GPU which drives the video card, so your teenage kids can play Crysis and Battlefield.

None of the above mentioned technologies are going backwards. Nor will they be removed. They are in premium models today, in the low $40K bracket.

Another key technology in autonomous vehicles is LIDAR. Velodyne’s first 64-laser LIDAR cost $75,000 in 2007. In early 2018, Velodyne announced it had secured a contract with Ford to bulk sell LIDAR for less than $500 per unit.

Getting back to the savings side of the equation, EIA suggests that an autonomous vehicle could offer up to 44% fuel savings over human operations for private vehicles, and 18% for heavy trucks. Assume a ball park fuel bill for a new heavy truck around $35,000 per year. An 18% fuel saving is around $6K per year. Payback on a $30K autonomous unit (even with having a driver sit in the cab and watch it) is around five years. Sounds like a bargain for the fleet owner if the technology works as intended.

All of the above mentioned technologies continue to converge, at a surprising and rapid rate. Given my age, all I hope is that by the time it comes to hand in my driver’s licence, there will be an autonomous vehicle available to take me down to the local for a counter lunch.

(PS. I did an extensive write up of the PHEV and its impact on the electricity grid. The article is too big to place here. If you would like a copy emailed to you, PM me with an email address.)

[Bossxr8]

Originally Posted by cheap

I must have missed something, but what is the actual problem that will be resolved by the introduction of this new technology?

Autonomous vehicles are so people can look at facebook and not the road. Duh

Not that many idiots don't try to do both at the same time atm.

[roKWiz]

Originally Posted by Mercury Bullet

Some of us still do.

I'm at my destination while the jetstar passenger is still in the jetstar queue.

Oh so true, dropped my partner at Albury airport to fly to Sydney cause she didn't want to drive up there with me in the truck.
She sat there for 5 hours waiting for the fog to lift only to find they cancelled that flight and didn't get in there till late. Guess who picked her up at the Sydney airport that night ?

I'm looking forward to a autonomous truck to drive me around the quarry and pick up individual pieces of granite.

[roKWiz]

Originally Posted by ozrunner

Yet 48 years later I can go to Bunnings tomorrow and buy an imperial tape measure

That's because old buildings were built in feet and inches.

[DJR-351]

Originally Posted by Bossxr8

Autonomous vehicles are so people can look at facebook watch "The Voice" and not the road. Duh

Not that many idiots don't try to do both at the same time atm.

Fixed

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-06-2...-crash/9902208

[Bossxr8]

Originally Posted by DJR-351

Fixed

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-06-2...-crash/9902208

I don't know what's worse. Watching the voice or potentially causing an accident

[Mercury Bullet]

Originally Posted by DJR-351

Fixed

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-06-2...-crash/9902208

That article clearly shows why I think fully autonomous cars are either many decades away or will never happen.
Unpredictable behaviour. Is a car going to slam on it's brakes every time it spots someone on the footpath or will it choose to run people over?

They're telling us that we need to drive an autonomous car.

[Cruzycuzz]

Originally Posted by Mercury Bullet

That article clearly shows why I think fully autonomous cars are either many decades away or will never happen.

Shall we put money on it?

[PooDog]

Originally Posted by Cruzycuzz

Shall we put money on it?

looking for volunteers for the first prototypes

[Maka]

Originally Posted by Cruzycuzz

Shall we put money on it?

In Australia, the Ev take up is 0.1% of the market atm & dropping. It could stay like that for a while too..

cheers, Maka

[Sprintey]

Originally Posted by whynot

There is a lot to unpack in this thread.

The comments made about the “false” predictions in 2001 are somewhat unfair. Recall that the movie was shown to the Apollo 8 astronauts before they even flew to the moon. The movie (and Arthur C Clark) got a lot of future predictions right. For example, Samsung tried to used 2001 in their copyright court case with Apple to prove that the concept of an electronic tablet was prior art. The reason why there are no moon bases today is that the American government, bogged down in an expensive war in Vietnam, lost interest in the space race. Given the surprising progress that Space-X has made with reusable rockets, humans may be back at the moon sooner than we think.

I leased an Outlander PHEV between 2014 and 2017. As my trade background is an electrician, I spent a lot of time examining the technology. I was pleasantly surprised how much progress has been made with EV and PHEV technology. In my mind, nearly all of the pieces are in place to facilitate rapid adoption of EV/PHEV. The one notable exception is the battery itself. Battery technology - in terms of weight, AH capacity, and price - are not quite there yet.

If we use the rapid adoption of solar PV as a proxy of consumer behaviours, then the majority consumers are seeking a cost payback time of five years or under. You can see this behaviour in action with solar PV systems. Where customers spend $5K on a system and save around $1K per year in electricity costs.

When I was driving the outlander PHEV, I was saving around $500 per year in “fuel costs”. That was based on doing around 12,000km per year, and calculating the theoretical cost of petrol, minus the cost of electricity to recharge.

If we use the five year payback rule, then the assumption is that if the cost of an EV/PHEV falls to a price premium of $2500 over petrol, then we will see a rapid adoption of this technology. Now, we are not there yet. The present price premium of PHEV is closer to $9K.

At the time, I worked for the local electricity utility. So, with the help of my engineering colleagues, we conducted some detailed studies on the Outlander PHEV (hooked it up to a dedicated meter that measured in one minute intervals and all four quadrants). It was also the first electric vehicle in Australia to be hooked up the grid’s demand management system.

The vehicle itself is grid friendly. Its charger soft starts. We regularly turned it off between 16:30 and 19:30 (over the summer evening peak), and it didn’t complain. Yes, a bigger battery will require a larger charger. For most homes, the larger current draw will not be an issue. (Most Queensland homes built since the 1970’s have 63A primary fuse and 16mm mains. Even charging at 10kW should be doable.)

The key with EV & PHEV is how quickly battery technology will progress. Once it reaches tipping point, the change will be rapid.

As for autonomous technology …

I think the authors of the AlixPartners have missed the point. What has not been predicted is how autonomous vehicles have come about from technology convergence of many disparate subsystems. For example, early ABS systems on vehicles (Mercedes-Benz 1978 S-Class) were very expensive, now ABS is available on all new vehicles. By 1995, this morphed into Electronic Stability Control (also Mercedes-Benz S-Class). The key point is that ESC now provides an easy way for an electronic black box to trigger the brakes, independently per wheel if required. Ditto, electric power steering. Introduced principally as a way to cut fuel consumption, can also be controlled by an electronic black box. Engine management systems have been fly be wire for a long time. So, we can now accelerate, corner, brake a vehicle; and do funky stuff if the vehicle becomes unsettled. Ditto, front and rear parking sensors. Introduced to aid in parking, they now provide cheap collision avoidance at speed. Fixed lasers and TV cameras, which autonomous black boxes can used, are rapidly being adopted on mid-priced vehicles as well.

The other bit of technology for autonomous vehicles has been good progress in computation neural logic, which has ridden on the back of Graphic Processor Units (GPS). No, not the CPU in your computer, the GPU which drives the video card, so your teenage kids can play Crysis and Battlefield.

None of the above mentioned technologies are going backwards. Nor will they be removed. They are in premium models today, in the low $40K bracket.

Another key technology in autonomous vehicles is LIDAR. Velodyne’s first 64-laser LIDAR cost $75,000 in 2007. In early 2018, Velodyne announced it had secured a contract with Ford to bulk sell LIDAR for less than $500 per unit.

Getting back to the savings side of the equation, EIA suggests that an autonomous vehicle could offer up to 44% fuel savings over human operations for private vehicles, and 18% for heavy trucks. Assume a ball park fuel bill for a new heavy truck around $35,000 per year. An 18% fuel saving is around $6K per year. Payback on a $30K autonomous unit (even with having a driver sit in the cab and watch it) is around five years. Sounds like a bargain for the fleet owner if the technology works as intended.

All of the above mentioned technologies continue to converge, at a surprising and rapid rate. Given my age, all I hope is that by the time it comes to hand in my driver’s licence, there will be an autonomous vehicle available to take me down to the local for a counter lunch.

(PS. I did an extensive write up of the PHEV and its impact on the electricity grid. The article is too big to place here. If you would like a copy emailed to you, PM me with an email address.)

Great post, thank you.

[jpd80]

The real issue at the moment is the huge up front cost of a battery Electric vehicle
in order to save the fuel used by a much cheaper ICE version of that sized vehicle.

A perfect example of this was the Holden Volt, by the time it got to RHD Australia,
it was $60K. almost three times the price of a Holden Cruze. A little bit unequal in
comparison but assume half the cost for a lux version of Cruze, that leaves $30K
difference to use in fuel over the ownership of the vehicle, something you don't
pay for up front or have to finance with interest as you would the Volt...

I'm sure once most people do the sums on whatever is offered, it will always be
much dearer here, taking much of the shine off what should be a joyous entry
into anew era of zero emission vehicles.

[ronwest]

Some info for interested peeps


https://myelectriccar.com.au/charge-...-in-australia/