Will the Holden brand survive?

[hackney]

Originally Posted by Syndrome

They were able to make a profit in the pre-Button plan days..........

Yes,but...the population was a lot smaller,there was nowhere near the auto makers(& sheer competition there is now.)You really only had the “big three” in the game.Toyota @ the time was still building it’s “empire”.The Button plan really was the beginning of the end for the big three.

[BENT_8]

Originally Posted by prydey

its a bit more complex than that, but yes, you need volume. its not just the manufacturer. its suppliers as well. even if holden could turn a profit at half those numbers, there wasn't enough demand for the suppliers with only 1 or 2 manufacturers here to keep them profitable.

we got an extra 10 years out of our auto industry than what could've happened.

You wont get any traction with that notion on here because no one wants to admit the game changed forever the day Ford announced closure of its local operations.
When Mitsubishi bailed the supply chain continued on for another 6 years with the 3 remaining but once Ford made its intentions clear in 2013 their fate was sealed.

Mind you, if Australians had the same pride in local manufactured goods that previous generations had, the numbers would still be there.
Its only 20yrs ago that the Elizabeth factory was churning out 100k VT's a year.

[prydey]

Originally Posted by BENT_8

You wont get any traction with that notion on here because no one wants to admit the game changed forever the day Ford announced closure of its local operations.
When Mitsubishi bailed the supply chain continued on for another 6 years with the 3 remaining but once Ford made its intentions clear in 2013 their fate was sealed.

To be fair, they were all treading water, and it was a case of 'who will blink first'.

Social media gives too many people a voice, and the powers that be are too weak to ignore the noise. Every manufacturing country gets subsidised by the govt, yet the know it all's forced our govt to abandon that policy.

[prydey]

Originally Posted by BENT_8

Mind you, if Australians had the same pride in local manufactured goods that previous generations had, the numbers would still be there.

I don't believe that for a second. The market is far too segmented. Trends change and our local product got left without a chair when the music stopped.

Also govt policy ruled out Aussie cars for govt vehicles due to tighter emissions targets. This probably hurt more than Joe public not buying.

You need protections in place from the govt esp in a global market.

[BENT_8]

Originally Posted by prydey

To be fair, they were all treading water, and it was a case of 'who will blink first'.

Social media gives too many people a voice, and the powers that be are too weak to ignore the noise. Every manufacturing country gets subsidised by the govt, yet the know it all's forced our govt to abandon that policy.

Totally agreed, on both points.

[BENT_8]

Originally Posted by prydey

I don't believe that for a second. The market is far too segmented. Trends change and our local product got left without a chair when the music stopped.

Yes but that's a self fulfilled prophecy, we're not investing in a car nobody wants, im not buying that car without the latest tech, we're not putting the latest tech into a car nobody wants and so on and so on until the bean counters say that'll do boys, no point flogging a dead horse and they all applaud the sound financial decision.
Both sides of the equation want to take the moral high ground, the customer for electing to exercise their right to choice over a product which is lacking and the manufacturer that points to the numbers as justification for reduced investment.

Now they're selling utes built in 3rd world countries with healthy profit margins, that certainly would have made it all easier to swallow.

[prydey]

It was a multi faceted situation. No single factor can be apportioned any more blame than another. Death by a thousand cuts.

[stevanford]

Originally Posted by Bevsta007

It will be $100K plus here, still a bargin for those wanting something between Muscle and supercar.

but after an initial sales burst it would be lucky to sell 3 a month..

I doubt the sales would pay for the RHD engineering

its no Savior for Holden

Where did I say that it was going to be a saviour for Holden ? If anything, my comments suggest that it could spell the introduction of Chevrolet (as a brand) to Aus in an offical capacity.

Sent from my SM-T720 using Tapatalk

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by prydey

They could have sold 5000 a month... still would have shut down. Not profitable at those numbers to keep the factory open. Pretty sure you know that anyway.

Not entirely true Rob, there's a little known fact that Ford and Holden Aussie
manufacturing actually added nice little revenue earner for other Ford and
GM divisions supplying parts, it's the reason why Ford was able to keep
producing Falcon and Territory for so long at remarkably low numbers.

What was really fishy about the Holden closure was the timing of the whole
thing, Holden went from almost bragging about continuing manufacturing
beyond 2020 to an almost knee jerk response to the government pressing
them for an answer.

Also
The timing of the closure announcement came after Camaro design lock in
so no factory RHD, Holden ended production without full contingency plan
in place.....and as we've seen all of Holden's other import sales really suffered
once the local cars went away, so even more collateral damage.

[BENT_8]

Originally Posted by prydey

It was a multi faceted situation. No single factor can be apportioned any more blame than another. Death by a thousand cuts.

No doubt, but if any of those 'multi facets' could have provided a different outcome it would be signatures on contracts.

Lets call a spade a spade, no one wants to build cars in Australia with all the red tape and union extortion when you can build them next door at a better return for the shareholder, they may point at different aspects to justify their decisions but its all just the means to the end.

[prydey]

The problem was none of the brands were fully local. They all had/have foreign parent companies.

Our facilities were aging and in need of major upgrades, the govt didn't want to support it and to get to anywhere else in the world was a decent boat ride. Those parent companies were never going to keep building the orphans they were when they could build mega factories in cheap labour countries and transport them easier.

[BENT_8]

Originally Posted by prydey

The problem was none of the brands were fully local. They all had/have foreign parent companies.

Our facilities were aging and in need of major upgrades, the govt didn't want to support it and to get to anywhere else in the world was a decent boat ride. Those parent companies were never going to keep building the orphans they were when they could build mega factories in cheap labour countries and transport them easier.

Agreed, however, I do believe the then Labor Government offered Ford something like 500m to stay on and they declined.

[prydey]

Originally Posted by BENT_8

Agreed, however, I do believe the then Labor Government offered Ford something like 500m to stay on and they declined.

They had no reason to stay by that point. No point retooling factories to build something that you are already building elsewhere at a fraction of the cost.

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by BENT_8

Agreed, however, I do believe the then Labor Government offered Ford something like 500m to stay on and they declined.

They weren't offered anything like that, Look back to what as offered to keep FGX and Territory,
the upgrades cost, $125 M and the governments chipped in $62 M, relatively peanuts....

The $500 M figure was how much Abbott proposed to cut in car industry assistance
but that somehow was assumed as money offered to Ford.....

It's the same BS deal that always happened, Ford was offered $30 M assistance for Focus production
while Holden was given over $300 M to assist Cruze production. There was always a lot more apathy to
investment in Ford because they had the hand on the ejection lever for years and governments just saw it
as tactics to get more assistance and not a real threat to leave.

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by prydey

They had no reason to stay by that point. No point retooling factories to build something that you are already building elsewhere at a fraction of the cost.

The closure of Ford's local manufacturing would hurt it far less than
what Holden's poorly timed announcement would do to it.

Ford had the good sense to move as many customers as possible over to
Ranger and Mustang while Holden clung to Commodore right to the end.

[prydey]

Originally Posted by jpd80

Ford had the good sense to move as many customers as possible over to
Ranger and Mustang while Holden clung to Commodore right to the end.

I think part of this is just anti Holden bias. Commodore outsells mustang these days. Colorado isn't a best seller but I'd imagine it's still profitable. Sure, Holden took a bigger fall in the end which is unfortunate for them.

Getting back to the thread title, the problem with Holden now is they only exist as a 'name' and only in Australia. They don't make their own vehicles. GM still use them as an importer. How long that continues for is the big question. Obviously Commodore is no longer a GM product.

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by prydey

I think part of this is just anti Holden bias.

. Sure, Holden took a bigger fall in the end which is unfortunate for them.

You're ignoring price and profit difference between say Ranger/Hilux and Colorado,
in some cases the average difference is well over $15K and Mustang versus ZB Commodore,
well they're not on the same page price wise...

Getting back to the thread title, the problem with Holden now is they only exist as a 'name' and only in Australia. They don't make their own vehicles. GM still use them as an importer. How long that continues for is the big question. Obviously Commodore is no longer a GM product.

ZB is linked to GMNA's continued sales of Buick regal in the US and China,
I suspect they will persist for another year or so but ultimately it will either
drop Regal and ZB from sales or move to something like either a rebadged
Chinese ATS-V or US CT-5 - both of which are probably a bit of a stretch...

The only thing preventing Holden from taking the big dirt nap is discounting on sales,
how long head office will tolerate that is anyone's guess....

Outside of Ranger, Mustang and a handful of Everest and Edge, Ford is basically selling
rubbish numbers of vehicles that buyers can easily get from other manufacturers
with less hastles and more choice...

[BENT_8]

Originally Posted by jpd80

They weren't offered anything like that, Look back to what as offered to keep FGX and Territory,
the upgrades cost, $125 M and the governments chipped in $62 M, relatively peanuts....

The $500 M figure was how much Abbott proposed to cut in car industry assistance
but that somehow was assumed as money offered to Ford.....

It's the same BS deal that always happened, Ford was offered $30 M assistance for Focus production
while Holden was given over $300 M to assist Cruze production. There was always a lot more apathy to
investment in Ford because they had the hand on the ejection lever for years and governments just saw it
as tactics to get more assistance and not a real threat to leave.

I seem to remember the Gillard/Rudd whoever was in at the time, offering Ford money to stay and they declined, it might not have been 500m but I'm fairly sure it was more than 30m.

[Sprintey]

Originally Posted by hackney

Yes,but...the population was a lot smaller,there was nowhere near the auto makers(& sheer competition there is now.)You really only had the “big three” in the game.Toyota @ the time was still building it’s “empire”.The Button plan really was the beginning of the end for the big three.

Not quite just the big 3. The setup allowed many more local manufacturers and assemblers: Renault, Nissan, British Leyland including the Land Rovers and Mini, Chrysler, Mitsubishi, Holden, Ford, Toyota - off the top of my head.

This in turn paid good wages to many working people who could easily buy much cheaper housing (housing was not financialised so much).

The Button plan was actually the beginning of the end of all 8+, and good working wages for auto manufacture to boot. Astounding it was done by an ALP government.

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by BENT_8

I seem to remember the Gillard/Rudd whoever was in at the time, offering Ford money to stay and they declined, it might not have been 500m but I'm fairly sure it was more than 30m.

The $30 M for Focus production was when Tom Gorman was in charge but I'm pretty sure
that any offer never got to an actual figure, all they did was allow Ford to keep $34 million
offered for the 2014 Falcon FGX model upgrade and a similar amount for Territory....

Apart for that the govt chipped in for $30 M assistance for workers and Vic Govt. $9 M

I do remember some comment that even if Ford was offered $500 Million it wouldn't be
enough to change the decision that was already made and that may have been from
Ford itself.

[Sprintey]

Originally Posted by prydey

The problem was none of the brands were fully local. They all had/have foreign parent companies.

Our facilities were aging and in need of major upgrades, the govt didn't want to support it and to get to anywhere else in the world was a decent boat ride. Those parent companies were never going to keep building the orphans they were when they could build mega factories in cheap labour countries and transport them easier.

True, and those mega factories and transport are looking a little geopolitically shakier at present. Anyone flying parts out of Hong Kong lately?

[jpd80]

Ask any Holden dealer now and they will say that just getting
potential buyers to walk through the door is now so hard.....

[BENT_8]

Originally Posted by jpd80

The $30 M for Focus production was when Tom Gorman was in charge but I'm pretty sure
that any offer never got to an actual figure, all they did was allow Ford to keep $34 million
offered for the 2014 Falcon FGX model upgrade and a similar amount for Territory....

Apart for that the govt chipped in for $30 M assistance for workers and Vic Govt. $9 M

I do remember some comment that even if Ford was offered $500 Million it wouldn't be
enough to change the decision that was already made and that may have been from
Ford itself.

Quite possibly, I don't think it was money that changed hands as such but Im fairly sure the then Minister for Industry Greg Combet was alerted to the issues facing the auto industry and it was his job to keep it rolling on but Ford didn't want a bar of it.
As I said earlier, the supply industry managed in the wake of Mitsubishi's closure in 08 whilst the rest continued on but as someone who was part of that supply chain by way of transport and logistics, the shockwave after Fords announcement was quite obvious and many small companies that couldn't diversify were concerned.
When Smokin' Joe gave GM the ultimatum I firmly believe he hadn't prepared himself for the response he got and by the time Toyota entered the conversation its fate was sealed despite their reluctance to close.

[jpd80]

Mulally back in 2012 said no more one off vehicles for one off countries. He was so sick of Aussie journalists pestering him about FOA’s manufacturing future that he just refused to discuss it. It didn’t matter if Falcon and Territory were profitable or not, no money would ever again be invested in a new product cycle when Ford could get a better return elsewhere.

I don’t exactly know what Holden and GM were thinking but it looks like things changed after the election when the Liberals claimed they had a mandate to stop throwing money at the local industry, they listened too much to the ultra right wing rhetoric instead of just looking at balanced support, we give you something, what’s the return to the taxpayers. The local business activity generated, employment and tax paid from that was never fully considered.

In saying that, I suspect that Ford had quietly off-shored most of its suppliers by 2012, in complete contrast to Holden, zeta was very much home spun on local Aussie supplies set up as a cottage industry. All so sad to see can do attitude dismissed so easily by the brown shirts.

[hackney]

Originally Posted by Sprintey

Not quite just the big 3. The setup allowed many more local manufacturers and assemblers: Renault, Nissan, British Leyland including the Land Rovers and Mini, Chrysler, Mitsubishi, Holden, Ford, Toyota - off the top of my head.

This in turn paid good wages to many working people who could easily buy much cheaper housing (housing was not financialised so much).

The Button plan was actually the beginning of the end of all 8+, and good working wages for auto manufacture to boot. Astounding it was done by an ALP government.

Yes you are correct in regard to all manufacturers,but as we both alluded to it was the beginning of the end.Remember,it was also when the Koreans “invaded” with the really cheap Excels @ $8,990.This also “turned” the local industry.”Cloning” between manufacturers(not one of the better ideas.)Quite frankly our auto industry was never going to last anyhow,how much money do keep “throwing” @ it? Good Money after bad.Was never a fan of Governments throwing cash @ them.Not getting my hard earned money!Glad they are all gone,money can be redirected to better things.

[davenl5l]

City Holden in SA , sales down 50% tech's leaving some made redundant. Nailsworth branch shut down and land sold off . Not much of a future

[Dr Terry]

Originally Posted by jpd80

In saying that, I suspect that Ford had quietly off-shored most of its suppliers by 2012, in complete contrast to Holden, zeta was very much home spun on local Aussie supplies set up as a cottage industry.

Not quite correct, so much of the VE & VF was made overseas. Things like rubber hoses & windscreen glass were all sourced offshore, often by the suppliers themselves.

For example the front windscreen which required new technology to make it triple-layered, yet thinner & stronger was made in Malaysia by the same company (Pilkingtons) who used to make them locally.

They could see the 'writing on the wall' way back in 2002-2004, when the VE was in its planning phase. They weren't prepared to invest in the local factory to supply GMH going forward. They just made them overseas & imported them like so much stuff nowadays. Much more profit for the multi-nationals.

Dr Terry

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by Dr Terry

Not quite correct, so much of the VE & VF was made overseas. Things like rubber hoses & windscreen glass were all sourced offshore, often by the suppliers themselves.

For example the front windscreen which required new technology to make it triple-layered, yet thinner & stronger was made in Malaysia by the same company (Pilkingtons) who used to make them locally.

They could see the 'writing on the wall' way back in 2002-2004, when the VE was in its planning phase. They weren't prepared to invest in the local factory to supply GMH going forward. They just made them overseas & imported them like so much stuff nowadays. Much more profit for the multi-nationals.

Dr Terry

And that's the key, the supplier bases were making things more profitable
and I bet that if you could see the actual internal figures Commodore, Falcon
Territory and even Camry would have been better than break even proposition.

I just think all lost patience with our governments grizzling about supporting
a local car industry - they just couldn't see the benefit of increased local
business activity, the less profit, the more money is kept here with business.

[Fordman1]

Originally Posted by jpd80

And that's the key, the supplier bases were making things more profitable
and I bet that if you could see the actual internal figures Commodore, Falcon
Territory and even Camry would have been better than break even proposition.

I just think all lost patience with our governments grizzling about supporting
a local car industry - they just couldn't see the benefit of increased local
business activity, the less profit, the more money is kept here with business.

The volumes were not sustainable, end of story 👋

[prydey]

Originally Posted by davenl5l

City Holden in SA , sales down 50% tech's leaving some made redundant. Nailsworth branch shut down and land sold off . Not much of a future

City Holden is building brand new premises on railway terrace, mile end.