No one wants EV's now?

[Maka]

Hi all, here's a interesting link about how unwanted EV's could potentially cost manufacturers billions -

"The study points out that full-autonomous technology will cost around US$22,900 per vehicle, but research suggests consumers don’t want to pay more than US$2300 for it. That leaves a substantial gap for the industry to foot."

https://www.carsguide.com.au/car-new...s-report-69536

cheers, Maka

[LG17]

The old perception vs reality.

[Fordman1]

EV’s will become mainstream and will be an amazing change to Australian society.

Autonomous vehicles ?

Probably commercial applications for the next 30 years.

[Sprintey]

A really interesting topic. Article infers that industry is racing to develop this tech and it's not led by consumer demand (witness Australia, 1% EV penetration and lobby groups having to lobby to bring attention to EVs). This reeks of capital misallocation without an underlying demand for it.

So I went looking, wondering why CEOs would bet the farm on a completely different mode of motion, and cars that drive themselves.

First, some humour:
"The problem is compounded by the fact world car sales are expected to fall over the next 15 years, with autonomy unlocking new ride-sharing and driverless-transport applications. " - yep, you can imagine Tradies sharing automonous Hiluxes, and hoisting their individual tool trays off so the next tradie can load up the car. So therefore, some private ownership is still going to exist.

More seriously, consider the work of futurist Tony Seba:

https://cleantechnica.com/2017/05/12...spiral-coming/

" He predicted the solar energy boom at a time when prices for solar power were 10 times what they are today. His latest report predicts two things. One, he says that by 2030, 95% of people won’t own a private car, killing off the auto industry. Two, he predicts electric vehicles will devastate the global oil industry by the same date."

https://tonyseba.com/portfolio-item/...ransportation/

https://www.smh.com.au/business/its-...19-goz5bm.html

https://seekingalpha.com/article/413...s-solar-25-oil

Righto, if what Seba predicts as the completion of trends beginning now occurs, we will see a massive disruption to the auto industry, the oil and power industry too. In that case, if a CEO is convinced that this will occur, they will bet the farm on being at the forefront of this technology. Which we are beginning to see.

Obviously, if you look at the electric models in the pipeline, many CEOs must have come to this conclusion. Interesting times ahead: if Seba is right we will see the side issues of mass hackings of cars (drivers have control taken away against their will), and non-ownership of vehicles by a large part of the public. If they can't afford houses, and can't own things like cars, I wonder what economic/political system that most closely resembles?

For us petrolheads, given the trend of removing the human interaction with the mechanical vehicle, it just makes those old school, manual V8s and other performance cars worth preserving all the more. Such involvement will be quite a thrill for future generations conditioned to have no relationship with a car.

[Brodes]

The study points out that full-autonomous technology will cost around US$22,900 per vehicle, but research suggests consumers don’t want to pay more than US$2300 for it. That leaves a substantial gap for the industry to foot.

A once off payment for an autonomous vehicle is much better for the bottom line than a regular wage; assuming the technology can be fully refined, their estimated cost of a fully autonomous vehicle is currently viable for transport industry, not for "consumers".

EV's are inevitable, viable and here now, countries who don't back it will be left behind.

[Sprintey]

Agree that EVs are inevitable.

Does anyone here work in the power industry? How well is Aus set up to switch its automotive transport power source to the grid?

[Crazy Dazz]

Sorry, what are we talking about?
Electric Vehicles, or Autonomous Vehicles?

Either way, the point is that as CONSUMERS there is literally nothing to be gained by "getting out in front of it," in fact the opposite is true.
I'm probably two old for this, but it's definitely possible that my daughters (or grandkids) will come to a time when they look for the next juice-box, and decide that the Electric Vehicle represents the best value for money. We're a lot further from that than many would have you believe, but I concede its coming.

Autonomous Vehicles is a different kettle of fish. Semi-Autonomous features are already here, and will expand. I'd suggest that before long we will be driving vehicles that can be safely switched to fully-autonomous mode on freeways and highways.
Does that mean we will see driverless vehicles? Debatable, especially from a liability perspective.

[Maka]

Originally Posted by Sprintey

A really interesting topic. Article infers that industry is racing to develop this tech and it's not led by consumer demand (witness Australia, 1% EV penetration and lobby groups having to lobby to bring attention to EVs). This reeks of capital misallocation without an underlying demand for it.

So I went looking, wondering why CEOs would bet the farm on a completely different mode of motion, and cars that drive themselves.

First, some humour:
"The problem is compounded by the fact world car sales are expected to fall over the next 15 years, with autonomy unlocking new ride-sharing and driverless-transport applications. " - yep, you can imagine Tradies sharing automonous Hiluxes, and hoisting their individual tool trays off so the next tradie can load up the car. So therefore, some private ownership is still going to exist.

More seriously, consider the work of futurist Tony Seba:

https://cleantechnica.com/2017/05/12...spiral-coming/

" He predicted the solar energy boom at a time when prices for solar power were 10 times what they are today. His latest report predicts two things. One, he says that by 2030, 95% of people won’t own a private car, killing off the auto industry. Two, he predicts electric vehicles will devastate the global oil industry by the same date."

https://tonyseba.com/portfolio-item/...ransportation/

https://www.smh.com.au/business/its-...19-goz5bm.html

https://seekingalpha.com/article/413...s-solar-25-oil

Righto, if what Seba predicts as the completion of trends beginning now occurs, we will see a massive disruption to the auto industry, the oil and power industry too. In that case, if a CEO is convinced that this will occur, they will bet the farm on being at the forefront of this technology. Which we are beginning to see.

Obviously, if you look at the electric models in the pipeline, many CEOs must have come to this conclusion. Interesting times ahead: if Seba is right we will see the side issues of mass hackings of cars (drivers have control taken away against their will), and non-ownership of vehicles by a large part of the public. If they can't afford houses, and can't own things like cars, I wonder what economic/political system that most closely resembles?

For us petrolheads, given the trend of removing the human interaction with the mechanical vehicle, it just makes those old school, manual V8s and other performance cars worth preserving all the more. Such involvement will be quite a thrill for future generations conditioned to have no relationship with a car.

The future corparatisation (or the demise?) of private car ownership in other words.

The total implications of this (Transport as a Service, or TAAS) on society needs to be ALL put on the table transparently & thought through very carefully before any big decisions are made by all stakeholders imo..

cheers, Maka

[Mercury Bullet]

2030...lol

In 1968 I thought I'd be sitting in a pub on the moon having a drink on the way home by 2001.

Something to consider in the transport industry is how many people are going to lose their jobs before people say enough to automation?

[Sprintey]

Originally Posted by Maka

The future corparatisation (or the demise?) of private car ownership in other words.

The total implications of this (Transport as a Service, or TAAS) on society needs to be ALL put on the table transparently & thought through very carefully before any big decisions are made by all stakeholders imo..

cheers, Maka

Maka I have a feeling that more of us than he realises will selfishly want to own a car, electric or otherwise. Imagine parents with 2 little kids and car seats and all their prams and gear for example, that would be a real drag having to fit it all each time your ride share SUV rocked up so you could do the run to kindergarten/shops/park. Even if two car seats were fitted to the ride share as a dedicated parents service, you would be scraping out the half chewed teething rusks from the seats from the former people to use it. No thanks!

I can see TAAS working in the inner urban areas of large cities, with a predominantly young adult workforce, and all those commuting from the suburbs there. As he points out, when an alternative becomes 10x cheaper to do, then a disruption follows.

Mercury Bullet, here is the magic scene from 2001:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xyjOjT8d8RI

We are still nowhere near this, and have spent all the innovation, capital and talent since the 1990s on smart phones, mobile towers and now are electrifying and connecting into the cloud everything right down to toasters. All while being still here on earth, although Elon & NASA is working on it. Mars Missions 2030s = bring it!

[lra]

Why is it …….. politicians and dreamers currently think that Australia is somehow like Europe ?
We can all ride pushbikes or catch public transport to work and wherever else we want to go, and an EV or autonomous with a range of about 100km is entirely satisfactory.
They don’t seem to realise that Oz is a big country, lacking the infrastructure to support these dreams, and unlikely to have that infrastructure built due to the cost.
How much is it costing for a few kilometres of ‘light rail’ in Sydney and Newcastle ?
The future will come, eventually, but it may take the demise of fossil fuels to hasten it. By then Oz will be so far behind the densely populated and developed countries, we will be just another third world country, using 19th century transport, with 21st century communications.
But, I don’t care because I will have fallen off the perch by then, having created more than my fair share of pollution.

[simon varley]

early adopters will buy the cars regardless, and mass production will drop the price. tighter and tighter emissions legislation will force so much aftertreatment on petrol and diesel cars that they will become uneconomic long before they are legally banned.

and Ira - much of Oz is exactly like Europe! a city is a city is a city, and nobody drives interstate now when you can get a Jetstar flight for $49

[Crazy Dazz]

As for the market for cars in general, yes the world changes, markets shift. Historically Australia was an important market because we were one of the few countries outside Europe and NA where the general populous could afford a private mv. Now the big market is Asia.
Yes, as cities grow and develop, our use of mv's will change. Most people in New York don't drive, and I imagine Tokyo, and other super-dense cities are similar.
Obviously China can't sustain a model in which every family owns a car, but even 10% is still a massive market.

So as a global manufacturer, yes these are challenging times, and they need to be putting their efforts into the right technologies. But again to some extent this has always been true. Even ignoring these emergent technologies, the market has been constantly evolving, and manufacturers have been adapting.
What I see, is that more than ever, volume is king. Lower volume producers, even those with great products, are struggling and falling behind.

[Sprintey]

Yep Simon that's exactly what has happened with interstate travel. Way cheaper and less wear n'tear on your car leaving it in a garage. You'd only drive if you wanted the experience of the drive - or to surf along the way

Here's Tony Seba again, in presentation form.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0

About 40:30 in it's staggering, and shows that 2021 is really the year everything will change. Probably beginning in those giant metropolises, and fanning outward. Eventually getting to outback Oz? Or maybe not.

[Mercury Bullet]

Originally Posted by simon varley

and nobody drives interstate now when you can get a Jetstar flight for $49

Some of us still do.

I'm at my destination while the jetstar passenger is still in the jetstar queue.

[Maka]

Originally Posted by Sprintey

Maka I have a feeling that more of us than he realises will selfishly want to own a car, electric or otherwise. Imagine parents with 2 little kids and car seats and all their prams and gear for example, that would be a real drag having to fit it all each time your ride share SUV rocked up so you could do the run to kindergarten/shops/park. Even if two car seats were fitted to the ride share as a dedicated parents service, you would be scraping out the half chewed teething rusks from the seats from the former people to use it. No thanks!

I can see TAAS working in the inner urban areas of large cities, with a predominantly young adult workforce, and all those commuting from the suburbs there. As he points out, when an alternative becomes 10x cheaper to do, then a disruption follows.

Mercury Bullet, here is the magic scene from 2001:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xyjOjT8d8RI

We are still nowhere near this, and have spent all the innovation, capital and talent since the 1990s on smart phones, mobile towers and now are electrifying and connecting into the cloud everything right down to toasters. All while being still here on earth, although Elon & NASA is working on it. Mars Missions 2030s = bring it!

Fact is though lol there's nothing selfish about personal autonomy & private vehicle ownership as it is now Sprintey, past, present or future.

In cbd's etc TAAS can work as a alternative or in conjunction just like the old/current taxi system etc but not/never as a total replacement of personal vehicle ownership imo.

cheers, Maka

[lra]

Originally Posted by simon varley

and Ira - much of Oz is exactly like Europe! a city is a city is a city, and nobody drives interstate now when you can get a Jetstar flight for $49

I must be part of a very large minority.
There is a lot of Oz left over when you take Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne areas out of the map. And cities are only important to those poor souls who have to live there, the rest of us can only watch and wonder about the queues of traffic seen from the TV news helicopters each night.
Not everyone has access to a cheap Jetstar flight. I will only use one of those flying sardine cans, and the associated capital city airport stress as a last inconvenient resort.
Having just got back from looking at where Burke and Wills died in the ‘desert’, I didn’t see an electric charging point at the Dig Tree.

[dunga]

Originally Posted by lra

Why is it …….. politicians and dreamers currently think that Australia is somehow like Europe ?
We can all ride pushbikes or catch public transport to work and wherever else we want to go, and an EV or autonomous with a range of about 100km is entirely satisfactory.
They don’t seem to realise that Oz is a big country, lacking the infrastructure to support these dreams, and unlikely to have that infrastructure built due to the cost.
How much is it costing for a few kilometres of ‘light rail’ in Sydney and Newcastle ?
The future will come, eventually, but it may take the demise of fossil fuels to hasten it. By then Oz will be so far behind the densely populated and developed countries, we will be just another third world country, using 19th century transport, with 21st century communications.
But, I don’t care because I will have fallen off the perch by then, having created more than my fair share of pollution.

That's because dreamers and pollies live in cities .Think about this if all the cars on the road were to be electric in a few years that would mean a huge shift of energy supply from oil companies to electricity producers do you really think all the energy used buy Ic cars can be supplied by electricity generators with the current infrastructure now there's your dreamers.

[GasoLane]

Originally Posted by simon varley

nobody drives interstate now when you can get a Jetstar flight for $49

Only if you're really, really desperate

[jgmdat]

[QUOTE=Sprintey;6151972]Yep Simon that's exactly what has happened with interstate travel. Way cheaper and less wear n'tear on your car leaving it in a garage. You'd only drive if you wanted the experience of the drive - or to surf along the way

Here's Tony Seba again, in presentation form.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0

About 40:30 in it's staggering, and shows that 2021 is really the year everything will change. Probably beginning in those giant metropolises, and fanning outward. Eventually getting to outback Oz? Or maybe not.[/QUOTE


Only watched about 4 minutes. He doesn't seem like the type of guy that drives a V8

[Sioso]

Originally Posted by Mercury Bullet

2030...lol

In 1968 I thought I'd be sitting in a pub on the moon having a drink on the way home by 2001.

Something to consider in the transport industry is how many people are going to lose their jobs before people say enough to automation?

Agreed, there is no way that in 11.5yrs time 95% of people won't own a private car.

[Sprintey]

Originally Posted by Maka

Fact is though lol there's nothing selfish about personal autonomy & private vehicle ownership as it is now Sprintey, past, present or future.

In cbd's etc TAAS can work as a alternative or in conjunction just like the old/current taxi system etc but not/never as a total replacement of personal vehicle ownership imo.

cheers, Maka

Well pointed out, when viewed from a point of individual freedom and liberty. I get the impression Karl Marx would be really on board with this TaaS stuff.

Originally Posted by jgmdat

Only watched about 4 minutes. He doesn't seem like the type of guy that drives a V8

lol, no I don't think he does!

[IanC]

By now we were supposed to have flying cars. Didn't happen. Autonomous is very far in the future. At least thirty years. As for electric - would you want to buy one second hand and know the battery would need replaced at huge expense? I would be surprised if they have any resale value after 5 years or so. The only purchasers are government departments and big companies that want to show how environmentally conscious they are. Ordinary consumers will not touch them.

[ozrunner]

This waffle reminds me of Oz's change to metrication in the early 70's, which over a small time frame outlawed the used of imperial measurements etc.

Yet 48 years later I can go to Bunnings tomorrow and buy an imperial tape measure

The same will apply with this garbage.

[jpd80]

A lot of the tech cars we read about are being subsidized by the US government with tax credits.
By the time they get here in RHD with a decent helmet factor on the price, they're not worth considering.
I think it's very academic whether we ever see electric vehicle penetration in this country, they just want too much money for them and that makes them the biggest joke going.

[sierra63]

With regards to electric vehicles, many homes do not have the electrical capacity to support the fast chargers, without additional feed to the house. Too many houses with chargers would mean substantial changes to the local substations and hence associated infrastructure...
Right now we are having trouble running the existing air conditioners, without the additional high load of charging Ev's, and we are still taliking about reducing existing capacity....

[Mercury Bullet]

Originally Posted by sierra63

With regards to electric vehicles, many homes do not have the electrical capacity to support the fast chargers, without additional feed to the house. Too many houses with chargers would mean substantial changes to the local substations and hence associated infrastructure...
Right now we are having trouble running the existing air conditioners, without the additional high load of charging Ev's, and we are still taliking about reducing existing capacity....

Oooh the price of my house just went up by leaps and bounds.

I'll advertise in bold it has 3 phase power and sell it to a greenie.

[PooDog]

Originally Posted by Mercury Bullet

2030...lol

In 1968 I thought I'd be sitting in a pub on the moon having a drink on the way home by 2001.

Something to consider in the transport industry is how many people are going to lose their jobs before people say enough to automation?

I thought this too .....that we'd be living like the Jetsons ......I guess with space exploration and the likes put on hold the world's technology has been diverted towards high tech ways to kill each other and PC bull sh#t ways to make simple things really hard .....where has it all gone wrong

[cheap]

I must have missed something, but what is the actual problem that will be resolved by the introduction of this new technology?

[XByoot]

Originally Posted by cheap

I must have missed something, but what is the actual problem that will be resolved by the introduction of this new technology?

Ummm, power suppliers profits I guess?