Covid 19 -

[prydey]

Originally Posted by asagaai

Just curious guys and girls

What are you doing for exercise in Covid 19 and to try to release pressure of life?

I cycle. Done just over 4000km so far this year. Also have a family (wife, two daughters 19 & 11) so just spending time together, watching movies etc is nice. Also live on the doorstep of a national park with a myriad of walk trails so fair bit of walking/hiking as well.

Having said that I've never been a real social person. There is very little difference between now and before covid19.

[russellw]

20 new cases in Australia yesterday and a slight fall in CMR to 1.068%. The UK CMR rose to 13.435%; NZ rose to 0.9% and the USA rose to 5.536%.

[cs123]

Originally Posted by russellw

20 new cases in Australia yesterday and a slight fall in CMR to 1.068%. The UK CMR rose to 13.435%; NZ rose to 0.9% and the USA rose to 5.536%.

Is there any modelling based on infection detection vs number of tests to give any idea of how many cases could still be out there?

What are the odds of it spreading though multiple people undetected?

[Polyal]

Originally Posted by cs123

Is there any modelling based on infection detection vs number of tests to give any idea of how many cases could still be out there?

What are the odds of it spreading though multiple people undetected?

Seems a bit like the calm before the storm...

In other news, I see NSW said the kids can go back one day per week. I try t be positive about some decisions but how on flicks name is that even worth while?

Nevertheless all ours will be going back 5 days a week from week 1, I have no idea how companies/Gov think parents are meant to balance working from home and education.

[FTE217]

Polyal, not sure what school intel you've got.
I agree its a basket case.
NSW quoting Term 3 Wk3 one day a week alernating age groups from May 11.
Weird.
Vic and Qld quoting staying remote but your State quoting reaccess May 15 !
I mean WTF between all of them.

[Polyal]

Originally Posted by FTE217

Polyal, not sure what school intel you've got.
I agree its a basket case.
NSW quoting Term 3 Wk3 one day a week alernating age groups from May 11.
Weird.
Vic and Qld quoting staying remote but your State quoting reaccess May 15 !
I mean WTF between all of them.

Ah yeah I did bugger up, I think it is T3 1 day.

We are in a smallish town, and then a school with only ~400 kids at capacity so if 50% of them are away then I class that as low risk. Id rather my kids be at school than home with me loosing my temper trying to get them all working effectively on a system that is pretty juvenile.

If I was in MEL or SYD I would probably have a different perspective if it was a large school.

[FTE217]

yer ok got it.
Correction for mine also, meant to be Term 2 wk3.
Look I hear you and I'm sure every parent well most would feel the same get them back to school, no matter large or small.
My daughter is 14yrs and the last of my 3 at school so the last couple of weeks of Term 1 remote class's weren't that bad yet she's pretty focussed. Be pretty difficult with primary etc...it would kill me lol......
Luckily my wife was home at that time, she'll be back at work once next term starts so we'd far prefer her back in school full time but isn't looking like it.
Oh I recalled you were in Qld so you've moved over the good border eh.

[Cav]

Originally Posted by cs123

Is there any modelling based on infection detection vs number of tests to give any idea of how many cases could still be out there?

What are the odds of it spreading though multiple people undetected?

Modelling by experts has been shown up for the sham that it is.

Maybe they should refer back to the good old days, "Well our best guess is ..."

[roddy1960]

Originally Posted by prydey

I cycle. Done just over 4000km so far this year. Also have a family (wife, two daughters 19 & 11) so just spending time together, watching movies etc is nice. Also live on the doorstep of a national park with a myriad of walk trails so fair bit of walking/hiking as well.

Having said that I've never been a real social person. There is very little difference between now and before covid19.

Fantastic with the bike prydey I haven't driven that far so far this year probably but I can relate to this ...

Our groundsman is 57 and is born in France ..Oui Oui.

His absolute passion in life is road racing . He was a promising junior in France before his family emigrated to Oz . He was 16 then . would have been about September 2019 he developed constant agonising pain in his right arm and was eventually diagnosed with a dangerous back condition causing the pain they suspect coming from a work injury a couple of years ago . He needed two discs replaced as part of the surgery too in early December. He had to have nearly three months off workhas only been back at work probably 6 weeks now.. He was worried he'd never be able to ride again . He's a keen member of a veteran cycling club that runs events most weekends and Olivier goes to most . Obviously the club is in hibernation at present due to the virus .

Liv has been cleared to train again now though and he's got his zest for life back ..Bloody great .. He rid on average 35-40 km a day even in winter . Six am before work he will do that and be ready to start work at 8.30 am because he only has half hour lunch instead of usual hour .

In summer he does at least 40 kms a day but after work . Doc said it's fine to start riding again but he has to keep up his physio visits and gradually return to his 250 kms a week training regime . He's done pretty well over the years and has won quite a number of events mostly in C Grade .

Best thing he says is the friends he's made and being able to keep fit . I don't know what would have happened if they told him not to ride again .

[russellw]

Originally Posted by cs123

Is there any modelling based on infection detection vs number of tests to give any idea of how many cases could still be out there?

What are the odds of it spreading though multiple people undetected?

I can't help with the latter as the R0 rate varies wildly from place to place.

Testing regimes are still well behind where they probably need to be. Among the larger ones I've been looking at, the UK has tested 1.03% of the adult population; the US 2.004%; NZ 2.441% and Australia 2.582%.

I'll dig into a few others with larger infection numbers and see what appears.

[superyob]

Originally Posted by asagaai

Just curious guys and girls

What are you doing for exercise in Covid 19 and to try to release pressure of life?

Playing some sweeeet jazz blues on my Squier Strat. Neck pick up selected, clean tone on VT20X with a minute hint of overdrive...

[Bossxr8]

Originally Posted by Tassie f100

Dunno about that.Mechanics that I know haven’t got cancers,rather their hands are disease free and cuts etc heal up in a couple of days.As an aside their knees and wrists are stuffed from too much kneeling on hard floors and pulling/ pushing too hard on spanners

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5449197/


Gasoline contains large numbers of dangerous and cancer-causing chemicals such as benzene, butadiene, toluene, ethylbenzene, xylene, trimethylpentane, methyl tert-butyl ether (MTBE) and many others which have shown evidence of increased risk of leukemia, kidney, liver, brain, pancreas, aerodigestive tract and prostate cancer.


All depends on how much exposure someone receives. Touching it doesn't mean you will get cancer, but washing your hands in it is just plain dumb which ever way you look at it. A lot of smokers don't get cancer either, but it doesn't mean they won't.

[cs123]

Originally Posted by russellw

I can't help with the latter as the R0 rate varies wildly from place to place.

Testing regimes are still well behind where they probably need to be. Among the larger ones I've been looking at, the UK has tested 1.03% of the adult population; the US 2.004%; NZ 2.441% and Australia 2.582%.

I'll dig into a few others with larger infection numbers and see what appears.

Perhaps just ask Cav????

[prydey]

Originally Posted by Cav

Modelling by experts has been shown up for the sham that it is.

Modelling by most 'experts' was based on 'if' there were no restrictions implemented. It was also mostly by those NOT in the official chain of command, and wanting their 15 seconds of fame on the TV. TV stations (main stream media) were chasing down anyone who would get the ratings up by giving their 'expert' opinion. Its why the waters are so muddy and so many people are confused.

[russellw]

OK - so (as expected) the volume of tests being conducted varies widely but the top 5 countries in terms of tests per 100k of population are Italy (3,930); Switzerland (3,225); Australia (2,582); NZ (2,441) and Spain (2,410).

At the other end of the scale (and remember these are only countries with higher case numbers) we have Colombia (173), Brazil (176), Ecuador (262), Peru (622) and Iran (686).



In terms of tests conducted per confirmed case, most countries are below 10 except for Australia and NZ which are both > 60!



What can we extrapolate from that?

We can probably draw the conclusion that we (AU/NZ) are testing more people than we really need to but if that conservative approach is helping us keep the numbers down then so be it.

Otherwise, we probably can't extrapolate much else given that most of the tests are probably still being conducted on people who present with enough symptoms to merit being tested so it still leaves the hidden cases that are either no or very mild symptoms and we can't even properly say that if 'x' more people were tested you'd get similar numbers of confirmed cases because you wouldn't.

What we'd need to draw any conclusions is a large enough sample group to be all tested regardless of symptoms and even then any extrapolated data would be rubbery at best.

[FTE217]

happy were testing more than we need to and increase it imo.
Thanks Russ.

[Cav]

Originally Posted by russellw

OK - so (as expected) the volume of tests being conducted varies widely but the top 5 countries in terms of tests per 100k of population are Italy (3,930); Switzerland (3,225); Australia (2,582); NZ (2,441) and Spain (2,410).

At the other end of the scale (and remember these are only countries with higher case numbers) we have Colombia (173), Brazil (176), Ecuador (262), Peru (622) and Iran (686).

image

In terms of tests conducted per confirmed case, most countries are below 10 except for Australia and NZ which are both > 60!

image

What can we extrapolate from that?

We can probably draw the conclusion that we (AU/NZ) are testing more people than we really need to but if that conservative approach is helping us keep the numbers down then so be it.

Otherwise, we probably can't extrapolate much else given that most of the tests are probably still being conducted on people who present with enough symptoms to merit being tested so it still leaves the hidden cases that are either no or very mild symptoms and we can't even properly say that if 'x' more people were tested you'd get similar numbers of confirmed cases because you wouldn't.

What we'd need to draw any conclusions is a large enough sample group to be all tested regardless of symptoms and even then any extrapolated data would be rubbery at best.

Thanks Russellw

I did see somewhere that NSW is the only state to show where infections are actually located.

I searched Google for 15 seconds and I only found numbers by location, at least that was something.

Other states only give out totals for the state.

I find this odd because if people can see that the nearest infection is 600kms away then why can't they go for a jog stroll along the beach, sit in a park bench or indeed go fishing?

Maybe the govmint doesn't want people revolting if they are too well informed.

Maybe that's why the media are continually catastrophising coronavirus (how about that alliteration folks!)

Is Coronavirus the new climate change challenge?

[Cav]

Originally Posted by superyob

Playing some sweeeet jazz blues on my Squier Strat. Neck pick up selected, clean tone on VT20X with a minute hint of overdrive...

Did ya get it from these blokes?

https://www.joujou.com.au

[Citroënbender]

I clicked that link and the site had a banner overlaid on it saying:
“Welcome back Cav!”

Bad news for Comrade Yob, is that Fender guitars are made in Corona...

[guzzis3]

Originally Posted by russellw

OK - so (as expected) the volume of tests being conducted varies widely but the top 5 countries in terms of tests per 100k of population are Italy (3,930); Switzerland (3,225); Australia (2,582); NZ (2,441) and Spain (2,410).

I was just about to suggest something quite similar to that.

If the data is available it would be interesting to see the numbers of tests each day against the number of positives for the various states in aus. I wonder if the detection % shows a trend like your third orders previously.

Models and data analysis are not the problem. People are the problem.

[GO FURTHER]

I think the biggest "hit" to our economy will happen in around 6 months time.
In the construction industry which employs over one million Australians, and our third largest industry.

It will be due to lack of foreign investment, international students and immigration causing falling house prices, and lack of new demand.

All that has stopped and l don’t see it coming back anytime soon.

[guzzis3]

Originally Posted by asagaai

Just curious guys and girls

What are you doing for exercise in Covid 19 and to try to release pressure of life?

Weightlifting. Here are some of my dumbells:

[Citroënbender]

From the experience of a sibling in civil projects, I think we are simply being played for fools. Investor support withdrawn over the last three months, causing mid-tier projects to stall, get the wobblies or fold up - there will be sales of projects wholly on the buyer’s terms. I fully expect those buyers to come from the usual stocks.

Aside from that there is a shedload of remedial work, some is now remediating the first attempts at remediation!

Originally Posted by GO FURTHER

I think the biggest "hit" to our economy will happen in around 6 months time.
In the construction industry which employs over one million Australians, and our third largest industry.

It will be due to lack of foreign investment, international students and immigration causing falling house prices, and lack of new demand.

All that has stopped and l don’t see it coming back anytime soon.

[Tonz]

Originally Posted by Cav

Thanks Russellw

I did see somewhere that NSW is the only state to show where infections are actually located.

I searched Google for 15 seconds and I only found numbers by location, at least that was something.

Other states only give out totals for the state.

I find this odd because if people can see that the nearest infection is 600kms away then why can't they go for a jog stroll along the beach, sit in a park bench or indeed go fishing?

Maybe the govmint doesn't want people revolting if they are too well informed.

Maybe that's why the media are continually catastrophising coronavirus (how about that alliteration folks!)

Is Coronavirus the new climate change challenge?

we had 2 reported cases where I live, both work and stay in Adelaide but records say they are here.

[Ben73]

Originally Posted by Cav

Thanks Russellw

I did see somewhere that NSW is the only state to show where infections are actually located.

I searched Google for 15 seconds and I only found numbers by location, at least that was something.

Other states only give out totals for the state.

I find this odd because if people can see that the nearest infection is 600kms away then why can't they go for a jog stroll along the beach, sit in a park bench or indeed go fishing?

Maybe the govmint doesn't want people revolting if they are too well informed.

Maybe that's why the media are continually catastrophising coronavirus (how about that alliteration folks!)

Is Coronavirus the new climate change challenge?

I think the worry was if people see no cases near by they will get complacent and act like nothing is going on. Then if someone enters that community who is infected it will spread around more.

I think NSW started releasing numbers by postcode to show that it is almost everywhere and you should be careful.

[Ben73]

Originally Posted by roddy1960

I have two mutts ,dear old border collie and lunatic kelpie that keep me busy when I take them somewhere for a good hour or more .

Otherwise on weekend there's a growing few things to do . I do have a ten speed Malvern Star mountain bike . Maybe I ought to get it out do a bit of tyre pumping and oiling and use that a bit . Today , tomorrow and Friday I have RDO's to use up by request from our boss .Bit of a crisp ,nippy morning in the valley so will have some time to use up . Til then my model railway needs some attention . New controller to get set up and a bridge to work more on ..

imageDSCF7058 by Rodney McGiveron, on Flickr....

image106 by Rodney McGiveron, on Flickr..

Got to build a second one of these Walthers truss bridges for the other side of the layout .Took me ages to find one that suited ....

Keeps me occupied on cold days ...The top picture was the original layout before I made some large alterations a year or so ago but it ran beautifully thanks to the help of a fellow modeler who gave me a hand with a few things , as I did with his . Needed to make changes to allow more scope to go digital now .. Glad I did . This virus stuff gives me a bit more time I guess to run new B.U.S. wires for switch motor for turnouts and points ..

That's awesome. I have never been intro trains, especially since I work with them, but I have always wanted to build a model railway like this. Probably has to do with my interest in town planning and design.

[roKWiz]

Originally Posted by asagaai

Just curious guys and girls

What are you doing for exercise in Covid 19 and to try to release pressure of life?

self levitation?

Dead lifting weights 8 hours a day,
I wish I could self levitate, the wall is getting higher.

[FoxtrotGolfXray 5.0]

Originally Posted by asagaai

Just curious guys and girls

What are you doing for exercise in Covid 19 and to try to release pressure of life?

No change for me really. I alternate each night between a 5km run and a 7km walk. Take the dog with me so she gets some exercise too. With my mum being a little less active and living by herself, she's joining me and the dog for the walks, as a way to get some exercise and some social interaction.

Walk takes me about an hour or so, with the run taking the same time by the time I do a warm up and cool down walk.

On top of that, I'm doing a ride on the mountain bike when I get the chance, normally on weekends. Did a 30km ride last weekend which took me about an hour and a half.

Our work is also looking at setting up a team for the push up challenge. This is a fund raiser and awareness raiser for mental health and suicide. Basics are that it runs for 21 days with a gaol of 3046 push ups. This equates to the number of lives lost in Australia to suicide in 2018. More info here if anyone is interested in getting involved and increasing your fitness via a means that is achievable during the coronavirus event.

[GasoLane]

Originally Posted by asagaai

Just curious guys and girls

What are you doing for exercise in Covid 19 and to try to release pressure of life?

Exercise?? I bought a Lego set

[DFB FGXR6]

Originally Posted by asagaai

Just curious guys and girls

What are you doing for exercise in Covid 19 and to try to release pressure of life?

Does mowing lawns and washing cars count as exercise?

One hour walk mid afternoon has been my routine lately.

Today's walk was particularly pleasant.