Government insider reckons Ford's local ops are gone in 2016

[BroadyFord]

What do people make of this?

What do we do if Ford goes?


http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/pol...224-2ezgl.html

What should Victoria do when Ford closes its local manufacturing operations in 2016? What will drive the Australian economy beyond the mining boom? If these questions concern you, then you are probably interested in the federal government's new Plan for Australian Jobs.

The Australian media's unique obsession with opinion polls means most people probably missed it. That's a pity because the future of the Australian economy and the Victorian economy in particular rests in no small part on the success of the $1 billion industry and innovation plan, released last week.

The Reserve Bank estimates the mining boom has generated 500,000 jobs over the past seven years - the economic equivalent of being hit by a rainbow. But many economists believe that boom is now over and unemployment is set to rise. The RBA and the commonwealth Treasury agree that resource investment will have peaked by the middle of this decade.

The mining boom has driven profound structural change in the economy, with the high Australian dollar placing many businesses under great pressure.

Which helps explain why Victoria could be just four years away from one of the biggest economic challenges it has ever faced.

Most industry analysts expect Ford to close its manufacturing operations in Australia at the end of 2016. If that happens, tens of thousands of jobs will be lost, especially in Geelong and Melbourne's northern and western suburbs. Industrial machinery and infrastructure worth billions of dollars will fall idle.

So does the federal government's jobs plan have the answers to these challenges? As usual, it depends who you ask.

Probably the standout initiative in the plan is the proposal for 10 world-class ''innovation precincts''. The first will be a manufacturing precinct based in south-east Melbourne and Adelaide, and the second a food precinct based in Melbourne.

International research has shown competitive advantage can be generated for companies through geographically concentrated clusters of expertise and the linking of businesses, researchers and support agencies. Clusters such as Silicon Valley are well known. Australia has also had some successes in this area - the bio-medical industry cluster around the Melbourne and Monash universities is one example. We have also had our failures, such as the ICT cluster, known as Comtechport at Docklands in the 1990s, proving that good execution and an existing or emerging industry base are critical to success.

The jobs plan also has a range of common-sense measures, including expanding opportunities for Australian-based companies to win work on major projects, improving management skills for small and medium businesses, and enhancing small business access to public sector work.

To stimulate venture capital investment and support innovative start-up businesses, the plan contains a $350 million boost to the well-designed Innovation Investment Fund that combines private investment with public funding. The changes to venture capital tax arrangements are also welcome.

Unfortunately, Australian policymakers remain far too timid in supporting innovative start-up businesses. The INSEAD Global Innovation Index for 2012 ranked Australia a lowly 23rd - we rank well on innovation inputs, including research and skills, but weak on innovation outputs, such as new products and entrepreneurship.

World leaders in innovation, such as the Nordics, Israel and Singapore, show that one of the keys to success is a generous system of tax or financial support for start-ups. Finland has a quarter of the population of Australia and invests about $200 million a year in young growth companies. In Australia, the latest investment of $350 million is over 14 years. With these sorts of policies, Nordic countries have been responsible for the emergence of new global businesses such as Skype, Spotify and Rovio Entertainment, the makers of Angry Birds. And Finland's economy has performed solidly despite economic meltdown in Europe and it being king-hit by the decline of its biggest company, Nokia.

The federal government's jobs plan has been criticised for creating too much new bureaucracy and more significantly for funding new initiatives through cuts to R&D tax credits available to some of Australia's largest but also most innovative companies. The government argues it is operating in a very tight fiscal environment and these big companies will invest in R&D even without the tax break.

So will any of this save Ford manufacturing in Australia? Probably not. Government policy is not Ford's problem. Ford's problems are that it makes big cars that not enough people want to buy, it does not make a small or medium car like other local manufacturers, it has not developed export markets, and its investment decisions are made by Ford HQ in Shanghai and Detroit and priority is given to locations other than Australia.

For Melbourne and Geelong, the experience of the US city of Seattle is salutary. Seattle lost tens of thousands of jobs in the 1970s when Boeing hit hard times. Today it is home to global companies including Microsoft, Amazon, Starbucks and Costco. It also has a booming clean-tech sector, driven in part by its ambition to be North America's first carbon neutral city by 2030.

As for a prosperous Australia beyond the mining boom, the jobs plan is helpful but much more will be needed to build our next wave of economic growth.

This must include a relentless pursuit of innovation and productivity by business, and an entrepreneurial culture that recognises failure is often a step on the pathway to success.

Nicholas Reece is a public policy fellow at Melbourne University's Centre for Public Policy and a former senior adviser to Prime Minister Julia Gillard and premiers Steve Bracks and John Brumby.

[BroadyFord]

And a response from Sophile Mirabella - which was the catalyst for me posting the above article on AFF:

PM MUST COME CLEAN ON FORD


http://sophiemirabella.com.au/Media/...D-CLOSURE.aspx

Spruiking his former boss’s latest policy flop, Nick Reece, a former senior advisor to Prime Minister Julia Gillard, and Victorian Premiers Brumby and Bracks, has boldly asked the question: “What should Victoria do when Ford closes its local manufacturing operations in 2016?”[1]


“As a member of Julia Gillard’s inner circle, what information has he been privy to?” asked Sophie Mirabella, Shadow Minister for Industry, today.

“We need to know what information the Government has on Ford’s manufacturing operations post-2016 and for how long they have held this knowledge.

“When the Prime Minister granted Ford a special $34 million handout last year and claimed it would create 300 new jobs, was the Prime Minister knowingly misleading the Australian public?

“We know now that within weeks of the last instalment of the $34 million taxpayer funded payment that Ford sacked 330 workers.

“Now, none other than Julia Gillard’s own former staff are telling us that Ford will close in 2016. The Prime Minister and her office must be honest with the people of Victoria and Geelong and tell them what she knows about Ford’s future,” Mrs Mirabella concluded.

[Wretched]

Well, interesting...*kicks back to watch the show*

[mcnews]

Sophie comes across much better when she keeps her mouth shut and out of the spotlight.... My local member...... great.

[csv8]

What ? not Dowling !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[jpd80]

The only tech hurdle for Falcon to go beyond 2016 is emissions, something that is likely to attract government funding.

But here again we have people trying to second guess what Ford has yet to decide themselves
and let's not forget that it's not just Falcon, it's Falcon and Territory, an SUV that adds significant income.

Ford could also be lying doggo to attract significant government funding to continue,
I would hope that 1.6 Ecoboost Mondeo production could be added to boost production.
Having a locally built car that gets 6.8 to 7.2 l/100 km would be a great advantage locally.

[turbodewd]

If these mining jobs start to dwindle it will be interesting to see what will fill the gap, if anything.

I hope someone has a plan!

If China sneezes we wont catch a cold...we will be bed-ridden and down for the count!

[jpd80]

After China rolls out its electric power grid in coal, I think they will look to switching to nuclear power,
maybe the door to Australia's vast reserves of Uranium beacons, as long as we take back spent fuel..

This country should be on nuclear fuel, we have huge resources of energy supply and should be
using it to make Aluminium and other manufacturing goods with lowest possible carbon footprint.

The French did it, that's why the EU can present themselves as clean and green and take the high moral ground.

[Buntz]

Originally Posted by jpd80

After China rolls out its electric power grid in coal, I think they will look to switching to nuclear power,
maybe the door to Australia's vast reserves of Uranium beacons, as long as we take back spent fuel..

This country should be on nuclear fuel, we have huge resources of energy supply and should be
using it to make Aluminium and other manufacturing goods with lowest possible carbon footprint.

The French did it, that's why the EU can present themselves as clean and green and take the high moral ground.

Politicians are slime balls that don't make tough choices that are unpopular. There are many things that should be, but aren't... that won't change.

If Ford closes down manufacturing in this country... which is still in doubt, then it will be the government to blame for not keeping them here.

[Nikked]

Since when have Ford said they are closing down operations? Oh thats right, just more dribble...

[mik]

Have to be sceptical of their plan working when's the powers that be can't keep their own finances in order in this economy, yet they expect big business to open up and kick on just because of a small handout.

[anto]

dribble it may be and I hope to god thats just what it is but as the old saying says, where theres smoke there's fire.

[Road_Warrior]

"Most industry analysts"...who might they be? I love it how these sorts of people quote "analysts" and "insiders" as some sort of information source when in actual fact all they are doing is rehashing older editorial opinions. That cracker in the Fin Review last year is one such example.

This must include a relentless pursuit of innovation and productivity by business, and an entrepreneurial culture that recognises failure is often a step on the pathway to success.

What, you mean like Ford Australia being one of only 3 R&D hubs in the world for Ford? Left out that little detail didn't you.

[malazn mafia]

Originally Posted by anto

dribble it may be and I hope to god thats just what it is but as the old saying says, where theres smoke there's fire.

Back in 2011, heard from a bloke who knows Allan Moffat personally (photos to prove), worked closely with Ford Broadmeadows, and a large collection of Ford memorabilia, ex v8 supercar shells, prototype Tickford/fpv motors in his collection. Basically the plan for 2016 was sale of much of Broadmeadows Ford site, and all tooling/equipment to be shipped to China. I hope he was wrong.

[BroadyFord]

Originally Posted by malazn mafia

Back in 2011, heard from a bloke who knows Allan Moffat personally (photos to prove), worked closely with Ford Broadmeadows, and a large collection of Ford memorabilia, ex v8 supercar shells, prototype Tickford/fpv motors in his collection. Basically the plan for 2016 was sale of much of Broadmeadows Ford site, and all tooling/equipment to be shipped to China. I hope he was wrong.

Don't know about that. Ford (briefly) had plans to build Ranger here - which would have been made after or around 2011.

[Joe5619]

My problem with Ford’s current handling of this whole thing is as follows
1) Holden have government funding out to 2020, Toyota have publicity said they are chasing government money for a 3rd line to start in 2018.
2) Yet Ford can't say anything about Jan 2017? You got to ask yourself why can’t they?
3) Saying nothing, is doing damage that ‘IF’ they do continue will take many years to rebuild. In my opinion, a change away from the now very damaged ‘Falcon’ brand is a must for anything built in Jan 2017.


I truly hope Ford has some plan for Jan 2017 & beyond for manfacturing in Australia, but come on Ford the time is right to let some of the plans out of the bag. We dont need the whole bag, but brake the bloody thing open!!

[tranquilized]

Originally Posted by Buntz

Politicians are slime balls that don't make tough choices that are unpopular. There are many things that should be, but aren't... that won't change.

You're right about Politicians not making the unpopular decisions, but to put it down to them just being slime balls is simplistic. The entire system is broken, and perpetrates the problem. Survival is basic human instinct, and for a politician to survive they need to be re-elected which implicitly prevents them from making any tough calls that will only pay off in decades to come.

Originally Posted by Buntz

If Ford closes down manufacturing in this country... which is still in doubt, then it will be the government to blame for not keeping them here.

Seriously? Not Ford Australia for not reading the market better and building a more popular car? Not Ford HQ in Detroit for wanting to build cars in cheaper countries and not giving FoA the support necessary to survive?

[Rodge]

Originally Posted by Wretched

Well, interesting...*kicks back to watch the show*

No please wait a minute, i've got to get some popcorn

[DJM83]

Yeah blame Govco for not keeping them in business that will work simple solution it seems. Maybe the decision to not build some higher selling models in OZ was a bad one.
Probably just another story to fill the news id say.

[blk6t]

Remove the Ford badge, take away the fact that their assembling our beloved Falcon...the simple fact is a product is being made that has lost market share and is on a sales slide.

You can blame the "Government" for what the Australian public buy and want, only person to really blame is the guy running the show...You can have such a large costly operation, manufacturing a niche product like the Falcon for the sake of "just because" it's been around for a long time.

I wonder where Ford Aus would be now if the Focus was being made here or if Ford produced a smaller vehicle more suited to market demands.

It sucks and I hate to write these things but for the sake of manufacturing in this country I would prefer to see Ford Aus making a car that sells well and has export potential than making a car that I love.

[WAR40T]

Lets just all move to China....

[BroadyFord]

The author of the article is right about one thing though; that the closure of Ford would represent one of the biggest hits to the Victorian economy in years. I'm willing to bet it would send Geelong and Melbourne's north into a serious economic depression.

All the more reason for Ford to provide certainty.

I wonder what Graziano will say when he's asked about this at the AIMS? He won't have his spin doctors to hide behind.

[blackf6]

Well my great great uncle that used to own a model T said Ford is here to stay. And his brothers cousin said so too.

[Bossxr8]

The secret will get out eventually. Do Ford think they they can keep it quiet for the next 4 years?

It didn't take long for news of the V6 program to be leaked out.

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by Bossxr8

The secret will get out eventually. Do Ford think they they can keep it quiet for the next 4 years?

It didn't take long for news of the V6 program to be leaked out.

Which is exactly the point, I don't think Ford is looking anymore than four years ahead with Falcon and Territory,
if the updates at the end of 2016 are purely to meet Euro 6, then maybe that decision doesn't have to be made
until after the next Falcon is released...

I'm just saying that too many are reading way too much into lack of information,
Holden presents grandiose plans because they are spending wads of cash but contrast that with Ford on a tight budget.
I know which horse I'd rather be on if the winds of change are upon us, spending cash is no guarantee of sustainability.

[blackf6]

Good post jpd80. There is way too much speculation out there.

[DJR-351]

Originally Posted by Buntz

If Ford closes down manufacturing in this country... which is still in doubt, then it will be the government to blame for not keeping them here.

So all those individuals who didn't buy Australian built Ford's can blame Govco for their decision on a vehicle.....?

or maybe....

Ford Aus can blame Govco for them not selling enough....?

Some twisted logic there...

[oceanwave54]

Could Ford be hiding in the shadows and waiting for the Commodore to cease production, ready to jump onto residual large/performance car buyers...

Would be interesting to watch, however unlikely.

[Bossxr8]

Originally Posted by jpd80

Which is exactly the point, I don't think Ford is looking anymore than four years ahead with Falcon and Territory,
if the updates at the end of 2016 are purely to meet Euro 6, then maybe that decision doesn't have to be made
until after the next Falcon is released...

I'm just saying that too many are reading way too much into lack of information,
Holden presents grandiose plans because they are spending wads of cash but contrast that with Ford on a tight budget.
I know which horse I'd rather be on if the winds of change are upon us, spending cash is no guarantee of sustainability.

And I still think Holden are stupid for spending so much on VF, I highly doubt it will do much to put a stop to the sales slide. It might initially but within 6-12 months it will keep sinking once the novelty of a new Commodore wears off and people continue moving on to SUV's, dual cabs and smaller cars.

One thing that is glaring in my eyes is Ford have bugger all capability of building an all new model, the engineering divisions responsible for getting cars into production are basically all gone now, as well as the tool room. The stamping and structures engineering section my dad worked in has one guy left out of the 20+ they had a few years ago. And a lot of these skills are specific jobs that require specific training by Ford to do, you can't just hire engineers fresh out of university to do them.

[Road_Warrior]

jpd80 has, once again, nailed it.

Originally Posted by oceanwave54

Could Ford be hiding in the shadows and waiting for the Commodore to cease production, ready to jump onto residual large/performance car buyers...

A more likely scenario is that they are waiting for the outcome of the Federal election to see what the incoming government has to offer the car makers.

Originally Posted by Bossxr8

And I still think Holden are stupid for spending so much on VF, I highly doubt it will do much to put a stop to the sales slide. It might initially but within 6-12 months it will keep sinking once the novelty of a new Commodore wears off and people continue moving on to SUV's, dual cabs and smaller cars.

One thing that is glaring in my eyes is Ford have bugger all capability of building an all new model, the engineering divisions responsible for getting cars into production are basically all gone now, as well as the tool room. The stamping and structures engineering section my dad worked in has one guy left out of the 20+ they had a few years ago. And a lot of these skills are specific jobs that require specific training by Ford to do, you can't just hire engineers fresh out of university to do them.

Well, technically, Holden didn't spend all that money on the VF, Chevrolet did. If that car wasn't going stateside, then it would have been a facelift and none of the gadgetry all the Holden fawners are carrying on about would have surfaced. No $500 Million spend either even though the boffins elsewhere are saying it was more like $350-$400 Mill.

Could it be that these engineering divisions are located somewhere else? You've got a huge engineering division there somewhere for developing vehicles like the T6 program (the SUV for starters) as well as the 2014 Falcon.