Are we Witnessing the Last Years of Ford Australia?

[Crazy Dazz]

A few years back, I would have said that GM was likely to outlast Ford in our market, and we saw how that turned out.

Of course that was before the Ranger, which is the only thing keeping open the Blue Oval Dealerships.

But the world has apparently gone mad, and Australia is following as fast as it can.

There have already been companies pledging that within a few years they will only sell EVs, and clearly our dear politicians are headed down that path, and bugger the consequences. It's easy to imagine that within a few short years it ill be impossible in Australia to buy a new car that isn't pure Electric. And those measures are going to also cover light trucks, and will destroy Ranger Sales.

Ford does make other good cars, including Hybrid, PHEV, and planned all-electric versions. But they've clearly got no interest in selling them here. Australia is an increasingly irrelevant market, and one in which Ford has no advantage or protection.

If it wasn't for the likelihood of getting shot, or randomly beaten by police, I would think of retiring to America.

American governments will increase their protection, allowing Ford and GM to remain competitive, and the Same with the EU.
Developing Nations, such as Thailand, also protect local manufacturing including Ford, plus their markets are growing and unlike Australia they won't cripple their economies with woke green bullshit.

It will be interesting to see how outrageously expensive the new PHEV is, but I would not be surprised if it is FOA's swansong.
Afterall, there are really only two possibilities. Either i will be an expensive dud, or it will be a great car in which case FOA will refuse to stock or market it.

[smoo]

It went terminal with the end of the Falcon.
Neglecting the rest of their passenger car range over the following 5 or so years was to rub salt into the wound.

Would have liked to be a fly on the wall when they found out the sticker price of the BYD Ute.
I imagine Ford thought they were able to scam these gullible Aussie's near 6 figures for a hybrid Ranger. BYD significantly eclipsing an aspirational price tag prob put that to rest.

[kypez]

It's a shame that people don't understand that govts backing EVs has little to do with being Woke or being Green really.

They're doing it to remove an item of dependency on countries that might not remain favourable in the long term. For the USA, weakening the oil demand in the middle east will significantly change the landscape in that region. For Australia, with Europe on the brink of war, moving to EVs keeps us secure and safe (for example, we've seen the jumps when the Ukraine war started). Unlike the USA, we don't have an army big enough nor have the will to invade any country to get cheap oil.

And our inflation loses one of the biggest factors of spending i.e buying fuel. Whilst EVs do cost to buy, the daily spend is so significantly cheaper that they pay out the cost of the initial investment very quickly by those spending the most on fuel and affecting inflation.

The market is shifting as it did all those years ago when Ford and Holden bet it all on big cars and the smaller Japanese cars came in. But this time, there are no tariffs (and rightly so) to protect Ford. They'll stay as long as they're profitable until they're not.

So many called it in unAustralian to buy a Japanese car back in the day only a few decades after what Japan did to Australia in the war. Now, just looking at sales numbers, people have no problem sending their money to China even with the political issues. Money talks.

[b0son]

Originally Posted by kypez

They're doing it to remove an item of dependency on countries that might not remain favourable in the long term.

In reality, swapping one unfavourable country for another (China). If we were to go to war with them, for example, what's stopping them pushing out an OTA update that bricks a significant proportion of vehicles here? It's unlikely, sure, but far from the realms of impossibility.

[smoo]

Originally Posted by kypez

It's a shame that people don't understand that govts backing EVs has little to do with being Woke or being Green really.

They're doing it to remove an item of dependency on countries that might not remain favourable in the long term. For the USA, weakening the oil demand in the middle east will significantly change the landscape in that region. For Australia, with Europe on the brink of war, moving to EVs keeps us secure and safe (for example, we've seen the jumps when the Ukraine war started). Unlike the USA, we don't have an army big enough nor have the will to invade any country to get cheap oil.

And our inflation loses one of the biggest factors of spending i.e buying fuel. Whilst EVs do cost to buy, the daily spend is so significantly cheaper that they pay out the cost of the initial investment very quickly by those spending the most on fuel and affecting inflation.

The market is shifting as it did all those years ago when Ford and Holden bet it all on big cars and the smaller Japanese cars came in. But this time, there are no tariffs (and rightly so) to protect Ford. They'll stay as long as they're profitable until they're not.

So many called it in unAustralian to buy a Japanese car back in the day only a few decades after what Japan did to Australia in the war. Now, just looking at sales numbers, people have no problem sending their money to China even with the political issues. Money talks.

No need for dependency for other countries for fuel.
Yeah, back when they offered Fords and Holdens on dedicated gas….

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by b0son

In reality, swapping one unfavourable country for another (China). If we were to go to war with them, for example, what's stopping them pushing out an OTA update that bricks a significant proportion of vehicles here? It's unlikely, sure, but far from the realms of impossibility.

You could do the same thing to any car thats hooked up to your phone through bluetooth, its not like OEMs are known for their security of their vehicle electrical networks.

Wait until you learn how vulnerable industrial electrical platform SCADA is to an over the air attack through the internet and you'll shit bricks when you realise how much of our critical infrastructure like water/sewer/power uses these systems and is hooked up to the internet for remote control purposes.

Forget about bricking your Chinese EV, wait until they dump all the chemicals from the chemical treatment plant into the local water supply once the control side of it is compromised over the internet.

It happened in the US last year in Texas, they compromised SCADA at water infrastructure plant and made tanks overflow, Ukraine did it to a Russian power plant, as well as Russia doing it to Ukraine in the opening days of their invasion to shut off critical infrastructure right before they carried out strikes on Ukrainian critical infrastructure.

You could open the weir gates on a dam, dump chemicals from the chemical treatment into the water supply, cause sewerage overflows and all sorts of dramas.

[kypez]

Originally Posted by b0son

In reality, swapping one unfavourable country for another (China). If we were to go to war with them, for example, what's stopping them pushing out an OTA update that bricks a significant proportion of vehicles here? It's unlikely, sure, but far from the realms of impossibility.

Europe is more likely to end up with a war than China coming here. We were still buying all their stuff. No need to invade Australia. Zero, zip.

Disrupting fuel supplies due to Russia and Europe being unstable is more likely. Even if Russia don't block the middle east, fuel supplies would be diverted to a war region for a greater profit and Australia would be screwed.

Heck, Elon backed Trump to abolish the EV mandate in the US because there is only 1 EV company that can build them profitably so without the mandate, Ford/GM/Etc don't get subsidies that Tesla don't need.

It's not about being Woke or green. Quicker people smarten up to that, the quicker they can put their egos aside and do what is actually better for themselves rather than being stuck in the mud.

So Ford is under the same threat as every other manufacturer from Chinese cars. The Japs boiled us like Frogs first to the demise of local manufacturing and now the Chinese are doing the same except exponentially faster as the cost of living pressures bite most Australians.

[kypez]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

You could do the same thing to any car thats hooked up to your phone through bluetooth, its not like OEMs are known for their security of their vehicle electrical networks.



Wait until you learn how vulnerable industrial electrical platform SCADA is to an over the air attack through the internet and you'll shit bricks when you realise how much of our critical infrastructure like water/sewer/power uses these systems and is hooked up to the internet for remote control purposes.



Forget about bricking your Chinese EV, wait until they dump all the chemicals from the chemical treatment plant into the local water supply once the control side of it is compromised over the internet.



It happened in the US last year in Texas, they compromised SCADA at water infrastructure plant and made tanks overflow, and Ukraine did it to a Russian power plant as well.



You could open the weir gates on a dam, dump chemicals from the chemical treatment into the water supply, cause sewerage overflows and all sorts of dramas.

Just look at the Cyber attacks on the USA gas infrastructure. Crazy how vulnerable these systems are.

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by kypez

Just look at the Cyber attacks on the USA gas infrastructure. Crazy how vulnerable these systems are.

It was originally designed for remote control within an internal network on industrial electrical infrastructure on site, then at some point they allowed only monitoring over the internet, then again at some point they slapped control over the internet and thats when all the dramas begun.

There's limited security on SCADA, it was never designed with the internet in mind, and this is the control system that controls all your critical infrastructure from power stations to water supply/sewage, gas infrastructure, you name it.

China turning off your cheap EV, so you can't go and buy your cheap Chinese goods at Harvey Norman is the least of your worries

If you can inject a start signal through the headlight circuit of Toyota/Lexus vehicles, whats stopping you from turning it off remotely through it being connected to your phone, through the stereo? Its not just your cheap Chinese EV that isn't going to start.

Even the OBD port how people are stealing all these VF Commodores in 5 minutes, there's no security mechanism on you interfacing with the vehicles electrical network, thats how you can rock up to a workshop and they can plug in with any third party diagnostic device and read/reset things, program keys et al.

If you have a phone connected to the car, now the car is exposed to the internet.

I think we've seen Ford Australia transition into its new phase, its a light commercial vehicle specialist, it makes the most profit in this segment, they're somewhat protected from things like NVES at least initially, and they have other engines in their range they can use for their platforms to get around threats to their business model.

[simon varley]

when I left 18 months ago, there were really only a couple of big development programs in progress, but after that not much. SuperDuty and PHEV have now been announced and are in launch phase, so what does that leave for the development team? I'd have to say probably not much. There are always the facelift programs, and emissions upgrade programs, but outside that I don't know. With relatively little content, it doesn't need a massive local team to run any of these.

A huge amount of work has already been outsourced to low cost labour countries, and a huge amount of skill and knowledge has been let go over the last two years. I hope I'm wrong, but I really don't give the development team locally more than a couple more years before the lights are turned off.

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by simon varley

when I left 18 months ago, there were really only a couple of big development programs in progress, but after that not much. SuperDuty and PHEV have now been announced and are in launch phase, so what does that leave for the development team? I'd have to say probably not much. There are always the facelift programs, and emissions upgrade programs, but outside that I don't know. With relatively little content, it doesn't need a massive local team to run any of these.

A huge amount of work has already been outsourced to low cost labour countries, and a huge amount of skill and knowledge has been let go over the last two years. I hope I'm wrong, but I really don't give the development team locally more than a couple more years before the lights are turned off.

This guy was all over it, 8 years ago.

Originally Posted by Trump

For some odd reason, Australians have this sense of "nah (XYZ) won't/can't happen here, we're special". Despite some impressive contributions by people within Ford Australia, Ford Motor Company is an American corporation, with an American way of doing business. The American way of doing business is to cut the costs of doing business by any means. Moving high labour cost business units to countries where the cost of labour is far lower is the first rule in the US business playbook.

The Australian engineering outfit at the moment is a necessary evil in their eyes; they are wearing the cost of keeping it running because China isn't up to scratch yet. As such, don't for a second think that Ford HQ won't pull the rug from under the Australian operation when the Chinese engineering teams get up to speed and begin producing work of comparable quality to their Australian counterparts.

Making a comment like that doesn't require any inside knowledge, it's Business USA 101.

[jpd80]

As long as Ford can keep selling Ranger and Everest, the boats will keep coming,
those high profit sales are like fish jumping into the boat for Ford and its dealers.
(Easy profits)

All depends how this year goes with new vehicle emission regulations and exemptions,
how many more years can they keep jumping the Shark against green policy makers?

The way Toyota are protesting, a lot of their high profit sales must be in jeopardy too.
Not sure that this is anything more than a last minute appeal to stay of laws affecting them.
(like Ford)

No doubt, the Chinese brands will be eagerly anticipating at all those new sales.

[Crazy Dazz]

Originally Posted by kypez

It's a shame that people don't understand that govts backing EVs has little to do with being Woke or being Green really.

ROFL
That's ALL it has to do with.
European companies are rocketing down the EV path, because that's what he Millennials and Governments want.

Our government will follow suit, because they'd sell their own mothers for a Green Vote.

[Crazy Dazz]

Originally Posted by simon varley

when I left 18 months ago, there were really only a couple of big development programs in progress, but after that not much. SuperDuty and PHEV have now been announced and are in launch phase, so what does that leave for the development team? I'd have to say probably not much. There are always the facelift programs, and emissions upgrade programs, but outside that I don't know. With relatively little content, it doesn't need a massive local team to run any of these.

A huge amount of work has already been outsourced to low cost labour countries, and a huge amount of skill and knowledge has been let go over the last two years. I hope I'm wrong, but I really don't give the development team locally more than a couple more years before the lights are turned off.

I've no doubt that Ford will continue to target SE Asia. They seem to have doubled don on their investment in Thailand. But those countries aren't going to rush into EV only status.

[Syndrome]

Originally Posted by Crazy Dazz

If it wasn't for the likelihood of getting shot, or randomly beaten by police, I would think of retiring to America.

Really?

[simon varley]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

This guy was all over it, 8 years ago.

apart from the China quote. Ford of China is an absolute basket case.

The overall development leadership of all products is moving back towards the US. The individual systems are being developed by Brazil, India and Mexican teams, but frankly, most of them are not really up to it.

Since Trevor Worthington retired, the Australian teams have lost a massive advocate for their skills and ability. Without that voice, I don't think we would even have lasted as long as we did.

It's a shame, but that's the way capitalism and business work :(

[Fordman1]

Originally Posted by Crazy Dazz

If it wasn't for the likelihood of getting shot, or randomly beaten by police, I would think of retiring to America.

I’ve had long term overseas assignments in the US, and the first thing you learn is what suburbs to stay away from (sad).

I wouldn’t live there in retirement, this country is better, we look after our retirees, elderly, and our people better, and it’s much more relaxed. I live on the Surf coast in Victoria.

But we do have some incompetent government (here) that we need to get rid of in the next couple of years.

[kypez]

Originally Posted by Crazy Dazz

ROFL

That's ALL it has to do with.

European companies are rocketing down the EV path, because that's what he Millennials and Governments want.



Our government will follow suit, because they'd sell their own mothers for a Green Vote.

Doing it for the green vote is very different to the govt doing things to be green.

If you really believe they're doing it to be green, well do I have a bridge to sell to you

[Fordman1]

Originally Posted by kypez

Doing it for the green vote is very different to the govt doing things to be green.

If you really believe they're doing it to be green, well do I have a bridge to sell to you

When China and India comply with these stupid targets, then we can have a look at it.

It’s madness for Australia to be pushing this more than almost half of the worlds population (in two countries).

I say Stage 5 emissions until Modi and Xi lift their games on a LOT of issues regarding that subject.

[kypez]

Originally Posted by Fordman1

When China and India comply with these stupid targets, then we can have a look at it.



It’s madness for Australia to be pushing this more than almost half of the worlds population (in two countries).



I say Stage 5 emissions until Modi and Xi lift their games on a LOT of issues regarding that subject.

India actually has very strict emission standards. I don't know why people keep this misnomer that they don't. China is also very strict with emissions which is why they're pushing EVs to reduce their emissions.

Indian Cars over 15 years old have to get a special check done to extend their road life to 20 years after which they have to be recycled unless you can show they're polluting equal to today's standards (not like Australia where cars need to meet the standards at the time they were sold and no one really checks that ever). Their emissions standards are similar to Euro level (called Bharat Stage Standards).

Cars need to pass yearly emissions tests to see how much pollutants they're pumping out as part of their annual inspections.

India is moving away from diesel rapidly especially in the consumer space. Almost all taxis are now CNG to reduce emissions and EVs are selling very well there.

[Sprintey]

Originally Posted by Crazy Dazz

A few years back, I would have said that GM was likely to outlast Ford in our market, and we saw how that turned out.

Of course that was before the Ranger, which is the only thing keeping open the Blue Oval Dealerships.

But the world has apparently gone mad, and Australia is following as fast as it can.

There have already been companies pledging that within a few years they will only sell EVs, and clearly our dear politicians are headed down that path, and bugger the consequences. It's easy to imagine that within a few short years it ill be impossible in Australia to buy a new car that isn't pure Electric. And those measures are going to also cover light trucks, and will destroy Ranger Sales.

Ford does make other good cars, including Hybrid, PHEV, and planned all-electric versions. But they've clearly got no interest in selling them here. Australia is an increasingly irrelevant market, and one in which Ford has no advantage or protection.

If it wasn't for the likelihood of getting shot, or randomly beaten by police, I would think of retiring to America.

American governments will increase their protection, allowing Ford and GM to remain competitive, and the Same with the EU.
Developing Nations, such as Thailand, also protect local manufacturing including Ford, plus their markets are growing and unlike Australia they won't cripple their economies with woke green bullshit.

It will be interesting to see how outrageously expensive the new PHEV is, but I would not be surprised if it is FOA's swansong.
Afterall, there are really only two possibilities. Either i will be an expensive dud, or it will be a great car in which case FOA will refuse to stock or market it.

Dazz - you need to update your phrase at the bottom of the posts, maybe '2025 - The Trumpire Strikes Back' or something similar

[Fordman1]

Originally Posted by kypez

India actually has very strict emission standards. I don't know why people keep this misnomer that they don't. China is also very strict with emissions which is why they're pushing EVs to reduce their emissions.

Indian Cars over 15 years old have to get a special check done to extend their road life to 20 years after which they have to be recycled unless you can show they're polluting equal to today's standards (not like Australia where cars need to meet the standards at the time they were sold and no one really checks that ever). Their emissions standards are similar to Euro level (called Bharat Stage Standards).

Cars need to pass yearly emissions tests to see how much pollutants they're pumping out as part of their annual inspections.

India is moving away from diesel rapidly especially in the consumer space. Almost all taxis are now CNG to reduce emissions and EVs are selling very well there.

Maybe they should reduce their overall emissions including their Coal Fire power plants, before we do anything !

China is doing this EV thing because there’s an opportunity to destroy Western vehicle manufacturers because of the Wests idiotic drive to EV’s by stupid politicians.

When China and India reduce their emissions (overall) maybe sub 30 million Australia should look at how it can help ?

[Sprintey]

All the new coal fired power plants planned and in build dwarf their being strict on emissions. They are doing both, big push for renewable build, and lots more coal.

[Fordman1]

Originally Posted by Sprintey

All the new coal fired power plants planned and in build dwarf their being strict on emissions. They are doing both, big push for renewable build, and lots more coal.

But the idiots pushing this expensive crap on Australians won’t listen to that argument.

I say stuff it until they both lift their games.

With our 27 million people, those 3 billion Chinese and Indians can do the heavy lifting.

Until then xxxx xxx !

[Sprintey]

It all changes on the day they decide to go for Taiwan. Have spent much time finding out how this is envisaged by planners.

On that day, the parts for all the new imports won't be coming, the boat from Thailand won't be coming. We'll have sub 30 days of liquid fuels. It'll take time to get convoys set up from Texas through the Panamerica canal then Pearl, then Brissy. We'll still have a metric ***-ton of CNG. Lots of coal in Gippsland for coal to diesel. EV's from solar will work. As will E85 in petrol motors for those who've done the flex fuel conversion. Maybe some will further gone ahead and got moonshinin' skills.

Having the cars turned off will be the least of worries, it'll be full spectrum in multiple theatres and most of us will realise when AFF won't come up on the computer...

Australia being a cargo cult with so much imported, that bit won't be fun.

I was working remote out on the Nullarbor when Desert Storm began and only found out later when I got back and mentioned the GPS stopped working to pin the sites. It was nice to be so far away from the world when that happened.

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by Sprintey

We'll have sub 30 days of liquid fuels. It'll take time to get convoys set up from Texas through the Panamerica canal then Pearl, then Brissy.

Good luck with that, given we have about 2 submarines operational to protect our trade routes, which will immediately be cut.

[Sprintey]

Yeah that's our rough reserve on land I think.

By 2027 there will be others' subs based here on patrol doing the sub things that matter.

[kypez]

Originally Posted by Fordman1

Maybe they should reduce their overall emissions including their Coal Fire power plants, before we do anything !



China is doing this EV thing because there’s an opportunity to destroy Western vehicle manufacturers because of the Wests idiotic drive to EV’s by stupid politicians.



When China and India reduce their emissions (overall) maybe sub 30 million Australia should look at how it can help ?

Per capita, their emissions dwarf Australia's. They've reduced their emissions significantly. Massive solar, wind and hydro projects. India don't want to import fuels into the future. It's silly to keep saying that they're not doing anything.

Of course two of the oldest civilisations that didn't just kill off one another have the largest populations.

China is selling more EVs in China than overseas so your statement is factually incorrect for now.

[jpd80]

Just saw that the Northern Hemisphere has 70% of the world’s land mass and 90% of man made emissions.
The Southern hemisphere has 30% of the world’s land mass and 10% of man made emissions……

When it comes to exhaust emissions, we are literally a tiny freckle on the elephant’s bum

[kypez]

Originally Posted by jpd80

Just saw that the Northern Hemisphere has 70% of the world’s land mass and 90% of man made emissions.
The Southern hemisphere has 30% of the world’s land mass and 10% of man made emissions……

When it comes to exhaust emissions, we are literally a tiny freckle on the elephant’s bum

Which is exactly why it's, like I said, not about emissions to govts.